Wednesday, November 30, 2022

The world of today is nobody’s oyster

 Ever since antiquity, there arose an empire at one time or another that managed to develop into such a great military and economic power, it dominated the known world of the time.

 

Such empires came, made their mark, left behind a magnificent legacy and faded into the proverbial sunset like a storm that makes landfall and turns into a drizzle.

 

The last of these empires was Great Britain on whose territories – it was said – the sun never set. This was the reality given that during the 24-hour cycle of the Planet’s day, Britain had a territorial possession that was lit by the sun. But when evaluated for its military and economic powers, Britain had fallen behind other nations. This happened inevitably after the Second World War, and was given the coup de grace by the ill-advised Suez fiasco. However, despite the reality that Britain is proverbially a faded empire, it continues to retain territories that stretch around the globe. They extend from Gibraltar to the Caribbean Islands to the Falkland Islands and beyond. This makes it so that today, Britain is a second rate power that continues to enjoy sunlit 24-hour days.

 

The Second World War that knocked Britain off its dominant position, opened the door for the United States of America to move in and claim the uppermost position where it reigned supreme militarily and economically for a number of decades. But this does not mean that America had no challengers. In fact, it had a Soviet Union that developed and produced a superpower-level nuclear arsenal to rival that of America. There also formed a European Union whose economic power rivaled that of America. And like the dark horse that was asleep and suddenly woke up, China hit the ground of development, and progressed at the speed of a bullet train equipped with an accelerating pedal and no brakes. It is on its way to eclipse not only the United States but also Europe and the Soviet Union-cum Russia.

 

Ignoring that history, and still living mentally in an era during which America towered over its rivals, there comes Elliott Abrams who is a graduate of the George W. Bush school of cowboy style management of foreign affairs. He laments what he says is the Biden administration’s failure to live by the stick, using the carrot approach instead when dealing with foreign sovereigns. He wrote an article in which he vents his frustration, and tries to persuade the administration to change course.

 

The Elliott Abrams article came under the title: “Biden’s Slow Walk Away from Venezuela,” and the subtitle: “The administration has weakened the democratic opposition and strengthened the Maduro regime in exchange for maybe a few drops of oil and little else.” It was published on November 29, 2022 in National Review Online.

 

Making the first paragraph of his discussion a single sentence that encapsulates his disappointment at the manner in which the current administration is proceeding, here is what Elliott Abrams said: The Biden administration is tired of Venezuela and is slowly walking away from efforts to promote democracy there”.

 

There was a time when words such as these would cause rumbling and commotion in the corridors of power in far away foreign sovereigns. But no more. The world has changed, and most everyone knows it except those like Elliott Abrams who refuse to part with their old time reveries, living instead in the memory of the world they used to inhabit when America was at the zenith of its power.

 

That was a time when stern words uttered by an American official, were seen as being the American way to waive the warning stick. It used to work on others. However, no longer able to force even the smallest of countries to toe the American line, Washington came up with a more intrusive way to warn and punish those who bifurcate away from its pronounced policies. The new way is for America to impose economic and moral sanctions on the countries it determines are opposing its policies.

 

And then a world that was already beginning to change, experienced a jolt that accelerate the change. This happened almost spontaneously due to the combination of a pandemic, a supply chain that slowed down, and a war in Europe that rendered America’s tools of sanction ineffective while giving clout to the countries that chose to live independently of America’s wishes, and the wishes of those who desire to extend their influence beyond their borders.

 

This is the condition that governs the relationship between America and Venezuela at this time. In a world that is so structured, America had no choice but to offer Venezuela the carrot rather than wave the warning stick. It is the course that the Biden administration chose to follow, a logic that aggravated Elliott Abrams. Here is how he expressed his feeling:

 

“The Biden administration is tired of Venezuela and is slowly walking away from efforts to promote democracy there. No other conclusion can be reached from its decision to soften sanctions on Venezuelan oil and permit Chevron to produce more oil in the country. More such moves will be coming soon. Lifting sanctions in exchange for real democratic gains has always been US policy. What is the United States now getting in exchange as it begins to lift sanctions? The concession from the Maduro regime are laughable”.

 

Instead of asking what the United States is getting in exchange for so-called democratic gains, Elliott Abrams should have asked what has the United States gained or lost from applying sanctions on others in the recent past. Had he done this, he would have met the reality that America earned the contempt of the world in addition to seeing its economic and financial powers erode.

 

Obeying the rules of statistics, America has become just one more empire that came, made its mark, left behind a magnificent legacy, and is on its way to fading into the proverbial sunset like a storm that made landfall and is turning into a drizzle.