Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Like a Cowardly High School Bully

Any teacher that taught high school or received students that came from high school can tell you a story or two about the bully that was too cowardly to personally interfere with the lives of others, and so did his thing in a somewhat different fashion. Instead of pulling the pranks himself, he identified and recruited the one or two naive individuals who agreed to carry out his plans while he sat in the shadows, and stayed above suspicion.

This is how things used to be in the schools long ago, but having retired from teaching, I cannot say whether or not they continue to be the same today as they were then. What I can say, however, is that this is the way I see things happening today in the places where the adults used to run the show – and run it in a mature fashion. It seems to me that the adolescents of a bygone era have grown physically but have remained stunted mentally, and have taken over the ship of state, which they now run like a schoolyard.

And there is another difference between the old days and today. It used to be that knowing what will happen to them if they got caught, the bullies of the past did what they did discretely so as not to get caught. The same cannot be said today because what used to be forbidden is now done by everyone, and has thus become the new normal. And when something is normal, it is not forbidden anymore. You can see an example of this in the article that was written by Ray Takeyh under the title: “The U.S. undercuts its own power in Iran nuclear talks” and published in the Washington Post on February 17, 2014.

Like the cowardly high school bully of a bygone era, Takeyh is here trying to recruit nerdish America to take on the job of rendering life miserable for Iran. To do this, he adopts an air of disdain as he describes what is about to happen on the international scene. He puts it this way: “In an all-too-familiar ritual of diplomacy...” A scorn of this kind is a signal to the nerd that he will soon be called upon to act on something.

But what is it that the bully is scornful about? It is this: “There will be lofty rhetoric about mutual understanding and mutual compromise.” This is to describe a situation that ought to be viewed as irksome, according to our bullying author. He is mocking it as if he were saying: “What is this lofty, shlofty thing they talk about, anyway?” It is as if he is warning that America is giving Iran the same respect it gave the old Soviet Union when in reality, Iran is nothing more than a “middling” power that must be “coerced” till brought down to its knees.

He goes on to denigrate Iran by telling how much undeserved deference it is given by “some analysts” who have been pleading a false case with Washington. And this is the point at which the bully pulls the ace card from his sleeve and plays it. This is a trick that always works on a nerd – wherever he stands on the spectrum between being extremely naïve and sophisticated.

It is that the bully plays on the ego of the nerd by explaining to him this piece of information: “Such postulations misunderstand the lure of U.S. commerce and the primacy of U.S. power.” In plain English, Takeyh is saying to America: You are so big and so powerful; to refrain from confronting Iran is to show a weakness that is beneath your greatness. And this is a motivational jab that never fails to move a listener.

That is to say America must continue to squeeze Iran even though things look better with the election that brought the moderate Hassan Rouhani to power. But the real power, says Takeyh, is in the hands of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the hard liner to whom the most important issue is not even the nuclear issue. Rather it is to prevent the moderates from regaining power in Iran. If this sounds like a paradox, there is an explanation.

It is that there is a Machiavellian quality to the situation. Khamenei allowed Rouhani to win, says Takeyh, to calm things down in Iran because he is as much a prudent pragmatist as he is a hard liner. Thus, Takeyh predicts that “faced with real threats to his power, Khamenei will retreat from well-delineated positions.”

And this is why: “Given the display of power between the United States and Iran, Washington has an opportunity to craft a durable accord while preserving its coercive leverage.” And so, the bully that started the conversation by talking coercion is ending it by talking coercion. It is high school time again in America's foreign policy.

Opponents have nothing to fear as long as America is given advice by know-nothing amateurs.