Sunday, August 22, 2021

Weak speculations based on wishful thinking

You could have summoned the spirits of the dozen best thinkers of all time, and asked them to write a piece that will tell what they consider to be wrong with America’s intellectual life these days, and they would have written a book about the subject.

 

You would have gone through the book and marveled at the great ideas and profound insights the thinkers were able to cram into a single book. By pure chance, you would then come across an article in 1,300 words. You read it, and you’re blown away. It is not the description of what’s wrong with America which blows you away, it is that the article and its author come to stand, in your view, as the iconic examples of what’s wrong with America.

 

The title of the article is: “The Forever War Isn’t Over,” which also came with the subtitle: “The Afghan debacle just marks a new, more murderous phase.” It was written by Matthew Continetti, and published on August 21, 2021 in National Review Online. What gives away the article as being a piece of garbage disguised as a jewel, is the following passage … here reproduced in condensed form:

 

 “‘I’m the fourth American president to preside over the war in Afghanistan,’ President Biden said. ‘I will not pass this responsibility on to a fifth president.’ But he did bequeath to his successor a terrible situation in Central Asia. The best-case scenario, according to Biden, would look like this: Afghanistan’s reversion to fascism fades away. The Taliban understands that its continued rule depends on its ability to prevent terrorists from launching attacks from its territory. But the best-case scenario is an illusion. Why? Because the war isn’t over. Afghanistan is just one front in a global conflict that the United States did not initiate and cannot wish away”.

 

What’s rotten in what you see in that passage, is that the writer has picked on President Biden’s assertion to the effect that he will not pass to his successor the war he inherited. It is a rotten approach because Continetti falsely assumes that the President has no control over what he decides to do, regardless as to whether he ends up honoring his promise or breaking it. Look now what Matthew Continetti does with the President’s assertion. He pits it against his own speculation concerning a future over which he has no control, and cannot foresee how it will unfold.

 

It must be said, therefore, that what’s wrong with America’s intellectual life, is that the certainty of those who can act on something, is being buried under tons of trash wishful thinking produced by those who are as impotent as the eunuchs of an earlier era. These were the guardians of the harem who loved to pretend they owned the place, when in reality, they were only guarding it for the exclusive use of the reigning monarch.

 

There is one more thing we need to do. It is to define the term “Forever War” in accordance with the meaning it was meant to convey when first coined. The term was utilized to reject the idea of America engaging in a “War on Terror” that was beginning to look like the hunt for witches to burn at the stake during an earlier era. But that definition has been superseded by as many reinterpretations of it as there have been writers using it to make their point.

 

As to Continetti, he has a novel use for the term. It may be something he worked on deliberately, or it may be the expression of his unconscious wishful thinking. Here it is, expressed in condensed form:

 

“The Cold War did not end when the South Vietnamese government collapsed. Nor will the Forever War cease with Taliban control of Afghanistan. When the jihadists look at the latest developments, they see American retreat as a spur to further action. It’s happened before. North Vietnam’s victory over the South did not make communism less expansionist. On the contrary: Laos fell to the Communists, Cambodia was subjected to the barbarism of the Khmer Rouge, Cuba sent advisers to the Movement for the Liberation of Angola, the Sandinistas overthrew the Somoza dictatorship in Nicaragua, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, and a pro-Communist insurgency took root in El Salvador”.

 

What’s that about? Well, in his zeal to show that the Domino Theory did unfold as predicted when America’s involvement in the Vietnam War ended, Continetti cited all that happened in the world subsequent to that event, and made it sound like none of it would have happened if only America had doubled its effort, and carried on with a Forever War in Vietnam. He then went on to speculate about what will happen in Afghanistan, the region and the world. He did so instead of describing what is known to have happened to the dominos whose fall he lamented: South Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Cuba, Angola, Nicaragua, the Soviet Union and El Salvador”.

 

Instead of discussing the normal evolution that these countries lived through subsequent to their “revolutions,” Matthew Continetti relied on two tricks to score some politically motivated points. One trick was based on the falsification of history where he committed a colossal error. The other trick consisted of spouting yet more speculation. Here is what he did:

 

First, “The relentless humiliations that followed America’s defeat in Vietnam ended Jimmy Carter’s presidency. They did not stop until Ronald Reagan shifted the nation’s course.” But the truth is that the Carter Presidency ended because two American helicopters collided and fell in the Iranian desert as they were attempting to rescue the hostages in Tehran. The hostages were eventually released when Ronald Reagan paid the Iranians a ransom that came in the form of Stinger shoulder-held anti-aircraft missiles. Carter’s failed attempt was a tragedy, not a humiliation. Reagan’s decision was a humiliation worse than a self-inflicted tragedy.

 

Second, “Just as the Taliban never surrendered after the US intervention, neither will the former partisans of the Northern Alliance acquiesce to the collapse of Kabul. Even a low-grade civil conflict will draw in other powers. America will be forced to pay attention and likely will become involved”.

 

This may happen or it may prove to be idle speculation; time will tell. But whatever happens, it will be a part of Afghanistan’s natural evolution.