Sunday, July 21, 2013

Detroit Goes Down, Egypt Stays Up. Why?

Why is it that a municipality like the City of Detroit went bankrupt? And why is it that a country like Egypt, hit with a torrent of calamities from all sides, weathered the storm and remained on its feet without flinching? To answer these questions, we first need to understand a few concepts in two areas of the economy: wealth creation and financing.

Let's begin the discussion with an illustration. You just graduated from college with a degree in geology. You are young and have nothing to your name except a small amount of money that will keep you going for a few months. But instead of seeking a job with an established company, you choose to become an independent prospector, and go look for an opportunity out there in the wilderness. You get lucky and discover a multi-metal deposit that can be mined commercially. This is wealth because where there was nothing there is now something. But it is wealth that is not yet useful because it has not gone through the many steps that will be necessary to transform it into consumer items called end products.

The first step that needs to be done to get there is mine the metals, which means extract them from the ground. To this end, you can sell the discovery to an existing mining company that will do the work. It will pay you an amount of money that may be large enough to let you retire and live the good life without ever having to work again. On the other hand, being young and ambitious, you may decide to live out your dream and practice your passion to the fullest. To this end, you will need to establish a mining company of your own, become its chief executive officer and run its day to day operations.

The catch is that to do all that, you will need financing at the outset. This will be money you will use to establish the company, erect the buildings and related installations, buy the equipment and hire workers. From where to get that money? Well, there are two principal methods by which to obtain financing: one method is to borrow money from the bank or a similar institution; the other method is to sell shares in the company you propose to establish. This means you will take as partners, people who will own a portion of the company in exchange for money they will pay to its treasury – thus allow you to launch the project and get it going.

You decide to do both; borrow some money and sell a number of shares. With cash flowing into the company's account, you start to work on the infrastructure that will bring the mine to life. Almost instantly, other prospectors and existing companies descend on the area, giving it the look of a mining camp. The participants stake their claims; they prospect for deposits, bring all sorts of equipment, drill holes and move the earth. With each discovery, new people are brought to the camp, and they necessitate the construction of new housing, new accommodations and all sorts of amenities that go into a human settlement.

You now have what looks like a town that cries out to be incorporated into a legal municipality. This prompts the people of the area to get together and agree on a constitution, as well as elect the members who will serve on its governing body. This done, you have a town that needs services ranging from the collection of garbage to providing the citizens with protection from the elements when feasible, and providing it with police work when necessary. For these reasons, the municipality is given the right to plan its own growth, enact its bylaws, levy taxes on businesses and levy rates on home owners. It is expected to spend that money in a manner that best serves the interests of its taxpayers and ratepayers.

Depending on several factors, the municipality will remain a mining town till the ore reserves are depleted – perhaps in two or three centuries – after which it will become a ghost town. Alternatively, it may attract industrialists and other entrepreneurs who will set up manufacturing plants and service industries that will add value to the ore and transform it into semi-finished products that other industries will use. As well, there will be enterprises producing finished goods ready for the consumers to pick up and pay for.

If this happens before the ore reserves are depleted, the town could grow to become a large metropolis, attracting all sorts of industries, research centers, universities and other institutions that will come and establish themselves inside the city limits, run profitable operations and pay taxes. And the city will have a bureaucracy of civil servants that will keep growing with it so as to handle its growing business and growing needs.

This is what Detroit looked like before it began to decline and ultimately go bankrupt. It may not have followed a scenario exactly similar to the one described above while growing into a city of more than two million people, but this would have little to do with the reason why it went bankrupt. Detroit started to decline because it remained essentially a one-industry town – an auto industry that was hit hard by foreign competition using cheap labor. Still, the city could have survived this ordeal and could have gone on to thrive again by diversifying its industrial base, thus avoid bankruptcy. It could have done this well were it not for the fact that throughout the decades, it also loaded itself with something called unfunded liabilities.

What's that? That can be one of several things. The most important being that insurance premiums are deducted from earners and given to a government at some level – from the municipal to the federal – in exchange for a legally binding promise that the earners will be entitled to receive regular payments upon retirement; or receive payments before that time should the payer become disabled or temporarily unemployed. The trouble is that it can sometimes happen that the money collected by the government is wasted by mismanagement, bad luck or what have you. And so, unable to fulfill its obligations, the government will have no alternative but to declare bankruptcy, which means ask the courts to relieve it of obligations it can no longer fulfill. This is what happened to Detroit whose retired civil servants grew in numbers at a time when people and businesses were leaving town.

Another way for a government to accumulate unfunded liabilities is to guaranty loans taken by someone else, a habit for which the federal government of America is notorious. This can range from loans taken by students which is a laudable thing to do. But it can also be loans taken by a parasitic entity such as Israel; a horrific thing to have done and to maintain to this day. Students are the future of the country, when they do well; the country does well and will be able to fulfill its obligations. But in the case of Israel, this is a hell hole that has no economy to speak of. It is a little bit like the Cayman Islands where tax cheaters hide their money. A little bit like Cyprus where shady moguls park their money. And a little bit like a front enterprise; a hollow shell through which mafia bosses launder their money and political bosses get funded under the table to then peddle influences in the service of their mafia bank-rollers.

America could soon be in the hook for hundreds of billions of dollars when everyone – most of them Jewish moguls – will pull the rug from under that miserable thing they call Israel. These moguls have a dual citizenship that allows them to receive American loan guaranties as Israeli citizens, yet run away and call themselves citizens of another jurisdiction when the time comes to pay back what they took out. This is how Israel's debt keeps accumulating and how America, the guarantor of that debt, will get shafted when Israel will be forced to throw the towel.

The day of reckoning is approaching because those moguls are realizing that their project has lost its viability. They tried to create a base out of which to takeover the world by funding violent Israeli activities aimed at stealing land and water from the immediate neighbors, and by provoking other people beyond them. The moguls also trained American politicians, especially those in the Congress, to erupt in joy every time that Israel spills blood in the Middle East. When this happens, diplomatic support is extended to Israel as if to congratulate that thing for a job well done. Also, more money and more weapons are transferred from America to Israel.

But then America started to approach a critical point in its own finances. Fearing that the country has been exhausted partly because of their own actions, the Jewish moguls started to look toward China and Russia to see if they can duplicate their American adventure somewhere else. The essence of Israel's relationship with America being that America remained mum or erupted in joy when Israel spilled blood in the Middle East every time that Netanyhu boarded a plane to go to Washington, the moguls wanted to test the reaction of the Chinese and the Russians in this regard.

To this end, they sent Netanyahu to China right after committing the criminal act of bombing someone – this time Syria. The response has been that upon Netanyahu's arrival, the Chinese told him to turn around and get out of there before they charge him with crimes against humanity and sentence him to life digging coal in a Chinese coal mine – not exactly these words but something to that effect. And so, the moguls sent Netanyahu to Russia right after committing a similar bombing act. And the Russian response was to tell the ugly duckling from Israel that if he did not get out of there fast, he will spend the rest of his years in a Siberian gulag – not exactly these words but something to that effect. And this was the moment when the Jewish moguls became convinced that Israel had become a lost cause from which they must cut and run. And they are doing just that at this time.

America will survive eventually as did Egypt. But why did Egypt survive and not Detroit, a once thriving metropolis inside America? Well, we saw why Detroit went down. And the way to avoid a similar fate is for the other municipalities to create a heritage fund in which the collected premiums will go, and from which payments to retirees, the disabled and the unemployed will come out. Such payments must never have an absolute value; but should increase or decrease depending on how much is left in the fund year after year.

As to why Egypt has survived and why America will survive; it is because they each have a diversified economy. There may be a Detroit or two in each of them, but other thriving municipalities exist as well that contribute to the wealth of the nation. Unlike Israel and Cyprus that serve as transit points where money is parked, going from one jurisdiction to another, Egypt and America create real wealth in terms of agriculture, mining, quarrying, manufacturing, construction and all the services that are required to make those operations possible, and make them run smoothly.

The creation of wealth is what makes an economy, not the handling of wealth crated by someone else. When you create wealth, you may experience a financial bottleneck once in a while, but you will outgrow it to thrive again. But if you only handle the wealth that someone else creates, the first serious bottleneck you experience will be the one that will break your neck and put you out for good.