Thursday, August 18, 2022

Self-deception that can lead to ruin

 For the purpose of this experiment, register in your mind the exact sentiment that gripped you when you will have read the following sentence: “He is a millionaire today because he was able to defraud me of ten dollars not long ago.” Absurd, isn’t it?

 

Well, my friend, this is exactly the same sentiment you should be gripped with every time you hear the pundits that holler and beat their breasts and knock their heads against the wall every time they say that the Chinese are doing better than the Americans in high technology because the Chinese steal the inferior American technologies.

 

But the truth can be extrapolated from the claim that America is an exceptional country, from the frantic calls for opening the door wider to the students of other countries (especially the Asians,) from the recognition that America’s technological advancement came about largely because immigrants from around the world founded the businesses that hired the local workers whose work has added to the national wealth. In fact, the evidence is abundant to the effect that America was the one to benefit from the genius of other nations, not the other way around.

 

Because we know what a bruised ego does to human beings who are caught in a losing competition, having once been at the top of their field, we shall not ask this question: “Why is it that the American pundits repeatedly accuse the Chinese of stealing American technology?” For those who are interested in such matter, the answer to that question is out there, and easy to understand.

 

Let’s instead concentrate on probing into what kind of culture the habit of self-deception is transforming what used to be a normal America. A revealing example that’s good to study would be the evolving relationship between America and China. But because both countries live in a world that is itself changing as rapidly as they, we begin by unveiling a few realities about that world.

 

At the end of World War II – scarcely three generations ago – China was a basket case whereas America was the undisputed master of the world. It was leading everyone in every field, and serving as beacon of light for those who needed guidance to navigate the brave new world in the making. But then, relying on what they used to call their “inner strength,” the Chinese people looked to America, not with envy, but with the determination that they can do as well, if not better, thus restore to themselves the glory they used to enjoy when they were leading everyone in every field, and serving as beacon of light to those who needed guidance navigating the brave new world that was shaping at that time.

 

To that end, the Chinese people treated themselves with a Cultural Revolution that was as painful as a civil war but without producing the large number of dead and wounded that’s generally associated with civil wars. When all was said and done, a “new Chinese citizen” had been formed, and he/she set out to leapfrog ahead of the Americans and all the others, placing themselves at the leading edge of everyone in every field, thus serve as beacon of light for those who will need guidance to navigate the brave new world that China is fashioning for the future and for many tomorrows after that.

 

But instead of welcoming the Chinese initiatives and offering to join the effort to help rebuild the new world, the Americans saw the Chinese new capabilities as being a threat to what they thought was a right meant to be exclusive to them. And so, the Americans responded – not with a welcoming mat extended to their Chinese counterparts but with a paranoic gun they pointed at the Chinese, and a sign that said: You could not have accomplished any of this on your own; therefore you must have stolen it from us”. 

 

This American attitude started the new Cold War between China and America; an attitude that does not promise to deliver an end as quietly as did the first Cold War. You can sense this reality from what the modern pundits are suggesting, and from what they describe as being the stakes they stand to lose if America fails to check what they describe as being the Chinese ambitions.

 

Alas, you also discover that the Americans are chasing – not a wild goose – but a non-existent goose when you delve into the nitty-gritty of how they understand the new economics work or how they can exploit what they see to advantage them. Here is what the American pundits are missing:

 

When the economies of the world were measured in millions of dollars, and an ounce of gold could be mined for less that 35 dollars, it made sense for the central banks to insists that those they licensed must maintain a minimum reserves in gold to guarantee that they can fulfill their obligations should there be a run on the bank. It is that enough gold was mined cheaply, and served that purpose adequately till something changed. As it happened, the economies of the world expanded at a much faster rate than new gold deposits could be discovered or mined. The result has been that to maintain gold as reserve to guarantee the stability of bank deposits, would require letting the price of gold rise to stellar levels. Doing so would have raised the price of all commodities, causing the economies of the world to crash.

 

Something had to be done, and it was. The central banks dropped the idea of insisting that gold be used to guarantee the safety of deposits, and the commercial banks developed the idea of showing how safe they were by accumulating enough foreign currencies to defend their own should that become necessary. The American dollar being the most popular at the time, it became the reserve currency of the world. If not de jure – the American central bank (The Fed) became the de facto central bank of the world.

 

All of this happened at a time when the world was searching for something (anything at all) that would replace gold as reserve for their central banks. Among the suggestions was the idea of creating a kind of “Monopoly” money that would play the role. When the American dollar proved to be popular, the bankers of the world resigned themselves to accepting it as the monopoly money they imagined would serve their purpose. And so it did, and so it remains to this day.

 

But what about tomorrow and the days after that?

 

Unless America gets over its paranoia and sits with the other powers to discuss how to make this world a better place, America will turn into a toy that will be used to bring smiles to the children of the future, and nothing more serious than that.