Monday, October 7, 2013

Second Half of Presidential Second Terms

A society that has been stagnant for a time begins to rise when the culture underlying it begins to experience cross-fertilization because the society itself has sought the cross-fertilization or because the phenomenon was imposed on it from the outside. Of course, one must be careful not to let the process of fertilization and change overwhelm the stagnant society, or the ultimate result will be the replacement of one society by the other such as happened to a number of indigenous cultures in what has come to be called the new world – as if nothing had existed there before the “discovery”.

The United States of America (usually referred to as America) is the most prominent example of the new world phenomenon where several indigenous cultures were almost wiped, making room for the newcomers to settle in and create a new society that is itself a product of the many cultures to which the newcomers used to belong before coming. The cross-fertilization has been breathtaking in America and has resulted in the rise of a whole new culture that shone brightly for about half a millennium. But the signs are here that the shine is beginning to dim. So the question: Is America entering a period of stagnation?

I am convinced that societies go into a period of stagnation and eventual decline not only by the absence of what is new, but also by the active rejection of it, something that happens to a society which begins to feel more comfortable living a moment of cultural lethargy. This is what I see happening in America these days – from the school children who harass the nerds that love math and science, to the groups that oppose immigration, to the environmentalists who continue to hang on to ideas that work against their causes even after it is proven that what they do harms what they say they wish to protect.

These are the symptoms but not the causes of what is pushing America into a period of doldrums. Yes, the symptoms have the habit of feeding on themselves and mushrooming to become a separate ailment, but the original catalyst that starts the chain reaction usually begins somewhere else before permeating the entire body. And the best indication as to how this happens is in the saying which tells of the fish that begins to rot at the head. We must, however, add an amendment to this saying so as to make it reflect reality more accurately.

The way I see things, the head itself does not usually initiate the rotting process; those who are close to it – be they underlings or aspiring rivals – do so. And they do it most likely because they have an ambitious agenda of their own they wish to implement. It would be an agenda that includes controlling the reins of power by legitimate means if they can or illegitimate ones if they cannot. And since change would interfere with their plan to take over, these people resist the change, and try to impose a period of lethargy that they hope will last long enough for their plan to succeed.

You can see how all this plays itself out in the perpetuation of what started as a myth but is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. It is the myth of the American president who manages to get himself elected for a second term becoming a lame duck president during the second half of his second term. The people who started this myth and continue to perpetuate it are the ones who smell blood at this point in time, and allow their hunger for power to grow exponentially. It happens as they see that the time has come to start polishing their work histories, and start running for the available offices even before the exiting administration has removed itself.

Niall Ferguson and Stephen Moore seem happy where they are, and so we must assume that neither is running for a different office. Yet, you see them caught in the tsunami that is sweeping America and that resists change. They do their part by rejecting all new ideas, and by hanging on to the cultural lethargy that is growing around them; one to which they contribute enthusiastically both their talent and their energies. You get a sense of this by reading two articles that appeared on October 4, 2013 in the Wall Street Journal.

The Niall Ferguson article has the title: “The Shutdown Is a Sideshow, Debt Is the Threat” and the subtitle: “An entitlement-driven disaster looms for America, yet Washington persists with its game of Russian roulette. The Stephen Moore article has the title: “Using 'Sue and Settle' to Thwart Oil and Gas Drillers” and the subtitle: “The Endangered Species Act is being employed more than ever to block development.”

Whatever it is that these authors are for or against, is not the issue here. The debates are raging, and they should have their say like everyone else. What is crucial is how they perceive the other players, and how they respond to them. Most important of all is how they perceive the man at the top, and how they perceive the people in his administration who wield the power and make things happen.

Ferguson sets the stage by describing a state of lethargy on the part of others that is setting him on fire. He complains that “watching the US bond market is like sitting in a theater and smelling smoke but everyone else seems oblivious.” But why does he believe this is happening? It is happening, he says, because “President Obama has become the Hamlet of the West Wing” who cannot make up his mind about anything. So Ferguson tells Obama what his job is about: “a key function of the head of the executive branch is to twist the arms of legislators on both sides.” Is that so? But where in the Constitution is this job description written?

After a few more paragraphs in which he describes the problem that America faces today, Ferguson ends with this: “Hey, does anyone else smell something burning?” Apparently not because they have all surrendered to a foggy moment.

We now come to the article of Stephen Moore who sees the American lethargy manifested in this form: “Many suspect that environmental activism isn't about saving species. Instead, it is about restricting land use for economic development.” And like Ferguson, he sees that the problem begins at the top: “the Obama administration and its allies inside and outside federal agencies have been making expanded use of a tactic called 'sue and settle' to issue new and expensive regulations.” Unlike Ferguson, however, he does not say that Obama is naturally indecisive, but shows him to be active in matters concerning the environment. And that's what gets in the way of economic development thus encourages the stagnation, according to him.

In practical terms, what happens is this: “Because the federal agencies include former employees of green organizations, sue and settle can be collaborative. The agency signs a consent decree that the courts then rubber stamp.” What can be more lethargic than that? But to be fair to all, Moore reminds us that: “The Obama administration didn't invent sue and settle, but the pace has increased since 2009.”

What the pair of authors has failed to mention are two crucial points. The first is that the most important economic development preoccupying the people who hold opinions similar to theirs, is the oil and gas industry. These people have been accusing the Obama administration of neglecting this industry, which is why America is so dependent on other nations to satisfy its energy needs, they have been saying all along.

And as can be seen in their current articles, they have been throwing all sorts of statistics and mentioning all sorts of studies to show how much America has lagged behind, and how much farther it will retreat in the coming years. And then it happened that under Obama's reign, America became number one in the world in matters concerning the production of oil and gas. Is this a miracle or is it something that can be explained rationally?

Never mind answering that question because the important thing is how did those people react to the new reality? Well, they said it all happened despite the fact that Obama did not help but stayed out of the way. Let's be clear about this now, my friend. This is what they said while talking through one side of the mouth. At the same time, however, they used the other side of the mouth to continue beating up on Obama. They did so by saying the exact opposite thing. In fact, they said that the proof Obama is a socialist is that he refuses to get out of the way and let the private sector run the economy like good capitalists do.

Whoa! How can it be that Obama proved to be a bad manager of the economy by interfering with it like do the socialists, and proved to be a bad manager of the economy by getting out of the way like do all capitalists. Did he or did he not? Is he a socialist or is he a capitalist? Is he a good manager of the economy or a bad one? He can only be one or the other; not both at the same time.

The truth is that you can never please these people; a sign that the culture is getting tired of itself. No wonder kids and adults have had it up to here with the whole setup. This is why they clamor for a period of calm even if it means embracing the lethargy that will most certainly lead to a period of cultural stagnation.