Friday, June 19, 2015

Neither Sykes nor Picot were of the Axis

Because history is like a giant puzzle made of thousands of parts which fit together to represent a narrative that tells the story of the human race, there is something we must never do when telling that story. We must never truncate a patch of the puzzle and talk about its parts as if they were the only constituents making up the entire narrative.

And yet, this is what some historians do when they step out of the classroom to engage in the art of spin-doctoring history in a way that would serve the ends of an ideological group they sympathize with, or one that pays them handsome bribes called honorariums. Of course, such historians can also have a point of view in which they believe deeply. In such cases, the historians would use the talent they have, and the knowledge they have acquired to make their point look perfect … even if it means they need to mutilate history by truncating it.

This is the feeling you are left with after you read the article that came under the title: “Aggressive Adversaries Are Redrawing the World map,” written by Victor Davis Hanson and published on June 18, 2015 in National Review Online. He is making the analogy between what is happening today and what happened three quarters of a century ago, to then conclude that the current “aggressive” nations must be deterred without delay, or dire consequences will result.

The problem is that he accuses the Islamic State, as well as Russia and China of remaking the global map in the same way that Germany, Italy and Japan (the Axis nations) remade the map of the world in their time, before starting the Second World War. But the fact is that cutting up nations into small parts, and creating new ones from those parts, is something that the two prominent colonial powers of the time did. It was Sykes of Britain and Picot of France who negotiated the Sykes-Picot Agreement three decades earlier, and put it into effect.

With that, the two European “democracies” remade the Middle East and North Africa in a way that suited both their interests ... so much so that they eliminated the need to be hostile to each other. This done, they were left with enough energy, and with the necessary forces to oppose the other rising powers of Europe. These were mainly Germany and Italy that insisted on having their share of the natural resources which Britain and France were plundering from the colonies.

Instead of talking about the giant puzzle that comprises all those elements, Victor Hanson truncated the narrative and started with the events that led to the Second World War. Doing so, he mutilated history and failed to make an accurate analogy between the past and what is happening today. He also failed to make a more convincing guess as to what might happen next.

In his view “the contemporary world is starting to resemble the 1930s.” He goes on to say what the Islamic State plans to do, what Russian president Vladimir Putin thinks he can do, and what the Chinese will be able to do. Hanson then asks: “Is this 1939 or 2015?” To answer that question, he says that “the Western European democracies were terrified and mired in economic crises.” As to the United States, it was struggling with the Great depression and squabbling about other internal matters.

Likewise, what is happening now is that: “President Obama assumes Americans are tired of the Middle East and want to be left alone,” says Victor Hanson. He then advances the following cautious note: “In 1945 the Western democracies blamed themselves for having appeased fascist empires.” And from this, he draws two lessons: “Small sacrifices now can avoid catastrophic ones later on, and dictatorial regimes on a roll never voluntarily quit playing geostrategic poker.”

He then speculates that the Middle East will be bookended by the Islamic State on one side and the new Persian Empire on the other. China will control most of the Pacific and will adjudicate trade. As to the client states of the new Russian empire, they will border central Europe and be under pressure to leave EU, NATO, or both.

He sees in this futuristic scenario two possible endings. However, neither of the two can be considered informative because the Hanson description of what the Islamic State can do, confirms it has snatched the “exceptional” title from America, given that people are flocking to it from every corner of the globe – including the U.S. – to fight and die for its ideals.

As to Vladimir Putin of Russia, he'll do what Hanson speculates he'll be able to do because he is loved by his people who don't view him as a dictator.

And China will shine economically because it was able to adapt the fundamentals of true capitalist, rendering them compatible with the realities of the modern world in terms of the advancements that have been achieved in science, technology and human development.

That's what America used to be. That's what America ceased to be. That's what the others are becoming.

Only one thing can be said now: The sole superpower is defunct; long live the emerging superpowers.