Sunday, March 12, 2017

The naked Eye and the political Science

The ancient Greeks were reputed to have guessed that matter was made of fire, wind and whatever; perhaps even of small particles called atoms. As well, the early Christians guessed that we and all living things were made of dust because they saw that everything that dies and does not get buried, becomes dust.

Given the methods of observation that the ancients had, it is remarkable they made those deductions. The difference between their science and modern science is that we now have microscopes and other methods with which to observe and learn how matter is structured. The result is that we know about the elementary particles and the forces that bind them together, and many of the things that make up the universe in which we live. And we can produce telephones and television sets; travel at the speed of sound, go to the moon and study the distant planets.

Believe it or not, our knowledge of the elementary precepts by which we determine the way that things develop politically, are not much different from what the ancients believed they were seeing; and what we now hold to be scientific truths. Read an article that was written by Eric Trager, and you'll see him describe a situation that's not different from the science that was available to the Greeks and the early Christians. After you've done this, read history through the lens of those who understand it and you'll know you're like a modern scientist that's equipped with an electron microscope and an atom smasher.

Eric Trager wrote: “Sisi's Domesticated Foreign Policy,” an article that was published on March 8, 2017 on the website of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. This piece of work is ahead of many others in that the writer relies on his own observations to make the deductions that he does. Consider this to be progress when compared to those who pluck from the air one echo here and one echo there, and repeat them to create a monster that's half fish and half fowl yet can neither swim nor fly.

On the other hand, Trager has come up with a construct that is only as advanced as the understanding that the ancient Greeks and early Christians had of what the universe was made of. To do better and develop an understanding as advanced as that of modern science, we need to go deep into history and study the elementary precepts as well as the forces that animate the various players on the world stage. Let's try.

History being a vast ocean of knowledge, it can be discussed only in general terms in an article such as this. What we need to know for now is that there are two kinds of Arab countries. There are those like Egypt, the nations of Northwest Africa, and those of the Levant which started as sedentary societies that farmed the land, and then moved to industry. And there are those who started as nomadic tribes roaming the Arabian Peninsula or West Africa, and lived on trade and commerce. A few lucky ones then discovered petroleum, and saw their lives change fundamentally.

Until Sykes-Picot materialized apparently out of nowhere and changed the course of history, Egypt was slated to remain ahead of the UK in terms of the industrial progress it was scoring. The steam engine, food processing and textile being the foundations upon which the Industrial Age saw its first rapid expansion, Egypt had them all at a time when the UK could only claim to have used the steam engine before Egypt. But even then, Britain's railway system was confined to the small island that it is, whereas Egypt's system was designed to open all of Africa. In addition, when it came to cotton for making textile, and food to be processed, Egypt remained light years ahead of the UK.

But then something happened that planted in the heads of the French and the Brits that because they possessed the firearms that nobody else had, they could subjugate the whole world, and divide it among them. This became the scheme upon which history unfolded beyond Sykes-Picot. Now, a century later, the sedentary Arab nations that were trampled on by that agreement, cannot forget the past. They maintain that despite the setbacks they have suffered, they can still reclaim their rightful place under the sun. And they are determined to do just that.

On the other hand, the tribes of the Arabian Peninsula that were spared the Western colonial onslaught because they had nothing to offer, submitted willingly to become “protectorates” of the UK and then the US when petroleum was discovered under their barren deserts. Lacking the history or the culture around which people in Egypt – for example – rally in difficult times, the tribal leaders of the Peninsula are able to maintain cohesion among their people only by appealing to the shared religion that binds their people together.

Thus, while Sisi is motivated by the ambition to leapfrog ahead of Europe, the Gulf Arabs hold on to their religion while hiding behind the skirt of mamma UK, and the coattail of papa US. This is why friction flares up from time to time between the sedentary societies and the Gulf tribes.

Now, my friend, go back and read the Trager article. You'll find that you've developed a totally different perspective as to where the Middle East stands today. And you'll no longer be satisfied with shallow analysis produced by amateurs echo-repeating the same falsehoods over and over again.