Tuesday, February 25, 2020

A Warmonger bored by the quiet Status Quo

True or not, legend has it that the First World War started because of sheer boredom.

It is said that European leaders who used to be at each other’s throats, got tired of fighting, took a respite but got bored and started needling each other again to add excitement to their lives. Things got out of hand when a small accident led to a response that called for a retaliation that escalated into a full-blown world war.

Take that for what it's worth, but do not dismiss the idea that idleness leads to boredom, which causes many species, including the human, to look for ways to relieve that boredom. As it happens, we now have an example of what goes on inside the skull of someone who is sliding down the slope of boredom, and would most probably have started something dangerous, were he in a position of power.

He is, the now retired, Jed Babbin who was once deputy undersecretary of Defense. He wrote an article under the title: “China's coronavirus failures and Iran's tanking economy can't be talked away by weak leaders,” and the subtitle: “Xi Jinping and Hassan Rouhani's confessions of weakness.” The article was published on February 23, 2020 in The Washington Times.

What you'll take away from reading the article and reflecting on its content, is that Jed Babbin is bored seeing the world as calm as it is. He attributes the state of quietness to the fact that the world leaders who count, on both sides of the divide, are weak. They are weak in the East, he says, and that is a good thing. But they are also weak in the West, he adds, and that's not good, according to him.

Jed Babbin views Xi Jinping of China as being gripped by the coronavirus, and failing to address the crisis properly. He also views Hassan Rouhani of Iran as being helpless, having to face the maximum economic pressure imposed on his country by the United States. And Babbin goes on to say that both leaders, who are opponents of the United States, have confessed to the reality that they are weak.

But how could this have led Jed Babbin to start a war were he in a position to do so? We get a sense of that by studying his thought processes as detected from his use of a quiet tone when he started describing what he was seeing, and his adoption of a harsher tone as he went on to describe what he was seeing.

Here is how Jed Babbin first exposed his thought processes: “Three revealing speeches and actions –– by Chinese President Xi Jinping, by Iranian President Rouhani and by the Trump administration in announcing a 'deal' with the Taliban –– are prime examples of conduct that betrays weakness.” And so, Babbin began with the use of a soft tone to describe the Chinese situation. Here is how he put it:

“The coronavirus has spread from the Chinese city of Wuhan to centers around the world. Mr. Xi claimed credit for containing the disease. He chastised local officials for not dealing with the crisis quickly enough. According to Mr. Xi, he issued demands during a Politburo Committee meeting to contain the outbreak. But the Politburo meets in secret, so his claims are dubious at best. Though Mr. Xi's statements were intended to impress the Chinese people, they will see his claims to be what they are –– as a confession of weakness”.

Jed Babbin then adopted a harsher tone to describe the Iran situation. This is what he said:

“Iran is suffering from a rapidly-failing economy brought about by US sanctions. Rouhani said that Iran will not negotiate with the US until it rejoins the nuclear deal and relieves Iran of the sanctions. He said that the Iranian economy is still thriving in the face of the maximum pressure campaign. The Iranian people see their economy in trouble and they protest against the ayatollah's regime. Mr. Rouhani's false bravado was intended for home consumption. He can't believe that Mr. Trump is going to rejoin the nuclear deal and relieve Iran of all sanctions. He is playing for time while confessing weakness”.

And he adopted an even harsher tone when describing the stance of the Western powers:

“Our weakness in Afghanistan has been evident for years. The latest proof is a preliminary agreement with the Taliban. It will begin with a reduction in violence and continue for a week with a cease-fire to begin afterward. Peace talks with the Kabul government are supposed to begin at that point. The fact that we could not require a cease-fire is proof of our weakness. Whatever promises the Taliban make they will violate without consequence. Once we're gone it would take another 9/11 for us to return. Our weakness in Afghanistan will re-create it as a safe haven for terrorism”.

Seeing the evolution of this intellectual journey, it is not too difficult to imagine that if Jed Babbin were in charge of matters concerning war and peace, and he were asked to make a decision, he would slide down the slope of boredom, gradually adopt a harsher tone of what needs to be done, and finally decide to start a war if only to relieve his boredom.