Sunday, February 9, 2020

Watch it, the Icing on the Cake is borrowed

If you want a near perfect analogy to what America's current economy looks like, think of Barack Obama spending 8 years applying a “steady as she goes,” professional hand to fix the train wreck that George W. Bush (43) left behind. He did all this while baking a most perfect cake anyone can bake.

Obama handed Donald Trump an impeccable legacy on which to build. It was to take a Sterling American economy through a new phase that will be challenged by new entrants into the competition for the shaping of a globalized economy that’s in the making. It was meant to decide what the socioeconomic condition of the entire planet will look like in the future as far as the eye can see.

While all of this was brewing, the pillars that made America what some people call an exceptional nation, were beginning to decay. That's because the highly educated who used to go to America from countries around the world, were now staying home where better opportunities were opening to them. The change also helped to create low skilled jobs in those countries; and that kept at home even the unskilled workers who used to go to America looking for opportunity. The net result has been the creation of a labor shortage in all fields in America; one that caused low unemployment and higher pay for everyone.

Instead of taking the baton from Obama and remaining on the professional 'steady as she goes' track, Donald Trump immediately acted like a stunned-by-his electoral success hillbilly, and ran around like a lightheaded yahoo, yodeling the refrain: look at me, I'm the best, I'm the best. He attributed to himself the success of the Obama cake while publicly denigrating the cake itself. He then did the equivalent of injecting poison into the cake by borrowing trillions of dollars from today's foreigners and from America's future generations. He gave the money to his cronies who whipped up the icing they used to cover the Obama cake, and went on to inscribe on it the lie: Trump's economy.

If you want to know how Trump and his toadies get away with this kind of nonsense, you may read some of the many pieces the toadies write on the subject, three of which are reviewed below. They are the following:

First, “2020 Democrats are biggest losers from Trump economic boom,” a piece authored by the editors of The Washington Examiner, and published on February 8, 2020. Second, “Paul Krugman, who predicted 'global recession' under Trump, admits economy is 'strong'”, written by Philip Klein and published on February 7, 2020 in the Washington Examiner. Third, “Sanders Rejects Trump's Booming Economy Message in New Hampshire,” written by Erielle Davidson, and published on February 7, 2020 in The Federalist.

Here is where the editors of the Washington Examiner went wrong as they described what they believe is happening: “It's clear that Trump is just as responsible for one of the longest bull markets and tightest labor markets in history, as much as Barack Obama was for the slowest economic recovery in nearly a century”.

It is clear that these editors don't understand that after inheriting the Bush train wreck, Obama had to use a steady hand rather than a panicky one to stabilize the ship and get things back to normal. It is also clear that these editors don't understand that inheriting an impeccable economy from Obama, Trump should have stayed on course rather than borrow to inject a sugar high into the economy; one that will be paid for with interest by future generations.

As to Philip Klein, he has demonstrated his lack of fluency in economics by criticizing Paul Krugman for predicting a global recession. Klein does not know that when an economist makes a prediction, he may specify the nature of the change, or when the change will occur but not both. Krugman specified a global recession but did not say it will happen immediately after Trump's election. Well, it is happening now throughout the world more than three years later, except for a handful of countries in Africa, which are experiencing extraordinary economic conditions, and for America that is digesting the Trump sugar high.

As to Erielle Davidson, She quoted Bernie Sanders who said this: “If you are the average American worker, despite huge increases in technology and productivity over the last 45 years, today you are not earning a nickel more in real inflation-accounted-for dollars than you did 45 years ago.” And Davidson countered that argument by quoting the one made by Michael Strain and went as follows:

“Making apples-to-apples comparisons of the purchasing power of wages becomes much more difficult the further back you go. How do you compare the price of a car in 2019 with one in 1973, given the significant improvements in automobiles? How do you compare the price of a laptop in 2019 with one in 1973, given that none existed in the 1970s?”

That's a valid argument but does not concern this debate. It is mostly used to discredit the attempt to compute the rate of inflation by making a comparison between prices of two different periods. As to the argument that would address the concerns voiced by Bernie Sanders, it goes like this:

45 years ago and previous to that, the average family in America raised 2 or 3 children on the salary of one earner. It took a vacation in America or abroad every year, and had enough saved after 2 or 3 decades to send at least one child to college. Today, the average family in America raises 1 or 2 children on the salary of two earners. It cannot afford to take a vacation every year, and has little saved after 2 or 3 decades to send even one child to college. This is why, in addition to inheriting crushing state and federal debts, America's young who go to college, borrow thousands of dollars they spend a lifetime paying back.

This being the reality of the situation, it is safe to predict that for the purpose of campaigning, the Democrats will adopt an argument that goes something like this:

In the same way that Bill Clinton restored growth after the Bush 41 recession, in the same way that Barack Obama cleaned up the Bush 43 train wreck, we may be called upon to revive the economic collapse that Donald Trump is engineering at this time.

We can wait for the collapse to happen and work on reviving the economy, or we can get in right now and rescue the economy from collapsing. The voters will make that decision and vote for us, or they'll let Donald Trump cause the disaster before they turn to us for help.