Here is an event in the making that stands at the crossroads with one direction pointing to an outcome that Dwight Eisenhower would approve of, and another outcome that John Bolton would salivate over.
A brouhaha has developed “down under” where
America got tangled in a Chinese-Australian quarrel that gives it the
opportunity to regain the aura it enjoyed at the end of the Second Word War, or
sink to the depth of irrelevance where it found itself at the end of the
Vietnam and Afghanistan Wars.
Here is the story that is developing both on
and under the Indo-Pacific waters:
Australia has the natural resources that
China needs. China has the money that Australia needs. Both have had a good
relationship for decades, treating each other as equals. But as it always
happens in a long-running relationship, fault lines began to develop between
the two nations, especially that China’s economic growth by far outpaced that
of Australia, which gave China the clout to begin treating Australia like a
junior.
Other nations in the Indo-Pacific region —
most with a smaller stature than Australia’s — began to feel the same,
especially in view of the fact that China began to lay jurisdictional claims on
areas of the ocean that were never settled given the history of the region. The
areas are rich with under-the-sea resources; and they also constitute strategic
shipping lanes that China can use to choke everyone else’s commerce, should the
current disputes get nastier with time.
There already exists a pact tying America and
Australia in a quad that also includes India and Japan. There had been the occasional
friction between the quad and China but things suddenly escalated to a high
degree when it was announced that America will equip Australia with nuclear
submarines to patrol the ocean floor of the disputed areas.
What ensued was that the editors of the
Chinese publication, Global Times, came up with an editorial that was titled:
“AUKUS [Australia, UK and US] to bring nuclear-powered submarine ‘fever’ across
globe,” which they published on September 16, 2021. In it, the editors say the
following:
“From the beginning,
nuclear-powered submarines are designed to be strategic striking tools. This will legalize the acquisition of
nuclear-powered submarines by all countries. As Washington stirs up great power
competition, more regions will be involved in rising tensions. Possessing
nuclear-powered submarines will become a universal temptation. Washington is
losing its mind by trying to rally its allies against China, creating
antagonism and destruction beyond its control. There used to be no grudges between China and Australia. However,
Australia has turned itself into an adversary of China. If it dares to provoke
China, the latter will punish it with no mercy. By being militarily assertive, Canberra will become a target of
Beijing's countermeasures. Once the
Australian army fights the People's Liberation Army in the Taiwan Straits or
the South China Sea, military targets in Australia will become targets of
Chinese missiles. The US and its allies are messing up the world. Here comes an
interesting question: Who is more capable of withstanding the global chaos?
China or them?”
Meanwhile, on the same day, Tom Rogan had
written and published in the Washington Times, an article under the title:
“Five Key Takeaways from the China-focused ‘AUKUS’ deal,” in which he made the
following points:
“This agreement reflects Australia's new
critical threat perception of China. Beijing has waged an aggressive economic
pressure campaign against Canberra. In turn, Australia has boosted defense
spending and strengthened military ties to the US. This is not the beginning of
a new NATO for the Indo-Pacific. The US remains alone in conducting operations
that bar China from inventing sovereign waters just because it builds and
militarizes islands in international waters. New Zealand Prime Minister says
her nation was not invited to join this agreement. China had assumed that it
could leverage its economic might to avoid more coordinated international
action against it. Instead, Beijing's arrogance and bullying are slowly waking
up the democratic world to the need to resist”.
Upon reading the Chinese editorial, Tom Rogan
responded on the same day with another article that came under the title: “US
should warn China: Target the Australian mainland, we’ll target yours,” also published
in the Washington Examiner. Here is what he said:
“Responding to the new AUKUS security
agreement, China says it will target the Australian mainland in the event
of war. In turn, should any senior Chinese official make similar comments, the
US should respond in a plain manner. More is at stake than how to deal with
incendiary rhetoric. Beijing wants US allies to fear that if they decide to
support the US, their homelands will come under attack. That is to say, our
allies would bear the ultimate cost of American action. Washington should state
that any PLA attack on the Australian mainland will result in an American
counter-strike against the Chinese mainland. No one wants a Chinese attack on
Australia. But the best way to avoid such an attack is to establish a clear,
deter-defense guardrail. China must understand that an attack on Australia
would be met in kind”.
What happened here? Well, if we disregard the
incendiary nature of the rhetoric that was used by the journalists on both
sides, we find that behind it all, is what Tom Rogan has described as, “the
best way to avoid an attack is to establish a clear, deter-defense guardrail”.
It is clear, therefore, that the Chinese were
establishing a clear, deter-defense guardrail to warn Australia. But Tom Rogan
viewed the Chinese warning as, “Beijing wants US allies to fear that if they
decide to support the US, their homelands will come under attack.” And so,
instead of leaving things at that, he issued a deter-defense guardrail of his
own.
And this is how escalations happen, be it
among journalists where it remains rhetorical, or among politico-military
leaders where it can develop into a war. Instead of escalating even further,
President Biden can wear the mantle of Dwight Eisenhower’s wisdom, and
deescalate by explaining to the Chinese that America is not plotting against
them.
It is crucial for the President to do so because the clones who are possessed with the warmongering appetite of John Bolton, are doing more than salivate at the prospect of a nuclear war with China. They are stirring the pot behind the scenes.