Prompted by the upcoming visit of Japan’s Prime Minister to Washington for discussion with President Biden – John Bolton decided to make a case against China, hoping to influence the decisions that the two summit leaders will take—even if he’s only a has-been now stripped of power and influence.
Having been a lifelong warmonger, John Bolton did what
was expected he’ll do when the time will come and he is forced to exit the
stage on which he used to enjoy playing the political game of a vibrant life.
What Bolton did was make sure he had the means to participate in the ongoing
game, playing it from the political grave that is his current homestead.
To that end, Bolton wrote an article under the title:
“This week’s critical moment for Biden to act on China’s threat,” published on
January 8, 2023 in The New York Post. To make his case, Bolton followed the
classic steps of analyzing and articulating both the morality and pragmatic
necessity which are associated with the stance he is taking.
At the moral level, Bolton sees a mix of positive and negative
things being bandied about by the players on the political stage. Here, in
condensed form, is a montage of what he wrote on the subject:
“Tokyo now publicly recognizes China as its principal threat. Biden has
paralyzed US strategic thinking about Beijing’s menace, obsessed instead with
negotiating climate-change issues. Spurred by Russia’s unprovoked aggression
against Ukraine, Japan is providing unprecedented aid to Ukraine, including
non-lethal military equipment. Not all is well, however, in the global West’s
reaction to Beijing’s threat, reflecting the continuing lack of American
leadership. Japan and South Korea have a complicated history, which prevented
extensive trilateral cooperation with Washington. Biden should make every
effort to facilitate Tokyo and Seoul coming closer together in
collective-defense alignments”.
At the pragmatic level, John Bolton sees things from the
same hawkish angle he used to see them when he had the power and the influence.
Here, in condensed form, is a montage of what he sees unfolding on the world
stage at this time:
“Kishida will sign a historic agreement with Great Britain, facilitating
joint military exercises and training between the two countries. This new
Japan-UK deal is an important step in building Indo-Pacific collective-defense
structures. Successive UK governments have outperformed the Biden
administration in political and military support for Kyiv. In Asia, Britain
took a role in forging a trilateral partnership with the US to develop and
build nuclear-powered submarines for Australia’s navy. What should happen at
the Kishida-Biden summit — but probably won’t — is a start on fashioning
elements of a new grand strategy to counter China and its growing entente with
Russia. Japan’s budget increases, its European outreach and its understanding
of the China-Russia threat all contrast with the Biden administration’s
timidity”.
And here, in condensed form, is what Bolton says he wants
to see happen — his recommendations:
“Kishida should press for greater activity by the Asian “Quad”, continuing
to move its members toward joint action. Enhancing Japan’s naval capabilities
with nuclear-powered submarines, could be beneficial in East Asia. Biden should
show how his defense budgets will help rejuvenate America’s military-industrial
base. Biden and Kishida should propose making South Korea a full Quad member.
Taiwan’s security should top the Kishida-Biden agenda. Closer planning among
Japan, America, other Asian partners and NATO allies should be a high priority.
The Kishida-Biden summit is the right forum to prove continued allied
solidarity against China’s conduct and to rally others against its growing
threat”.
Having (1) assessed the morality of the situation as seen
by himself and by others, having (2) gauged the pragmatic implications of
what’s being done both by America’s allies and by its foes—preoccupied as they all
are with the need to safeguard the safety of their people, and having (3)
suggested to everyone what they need to do going forward—John Bolton should
have designed a clear plan; one that’s unblemished by a contradiction, however
small it may be.
Did John Bolton do that? No, he did not. And you’ll see
the evidence when you study the way that he praised Japan for promising to increase
its defense budget in the future even though it has not done it yet … while
criticizing Germany that has not increased its defense budget this year, but promising
a sea change in the future.
Here, in condensed form, is how John Bolton expressed the
“different strokes for different folks” sentiment he harbors for Japan and for Germany:
“Just weeks ago, Kishida announced a historical ‘turning point’ in Tokyo’s
security policy, vowing to double its defense budget in the next five years to
2% of gross domestic product, NATO’s target level. Germany stands in sharp
contrast to Japan. Despite Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s declared ‘sea change’ in
German security policy just days after Moscow’s attack on Ukraine, Berlin is
failing to reach key goals, including increasing defense outlays to 2% of
GDP this year”.