Monday, April 28, 2014

They want the old Wine in a new Bottle

You start reading an article and it bores silly because the content is a rehash of things that were said before and debunked almost instantly. You decide you're not going to respond to this piece because there must be something better out there requiring your attention. And then, you hit on a passage in the article that has an effect on you similar to a tornado lifting you in the air and slamming you against a brick wall at a hundred miles an hour. And you say to yourself: I got to write about this.

That notorious article has the title: “Demand-Side Policy gave Us the Big Economic Fizzle” and the subtitle: “The unstimulating stimulus ignored basic principles of economic incentives.” It was written by Alan Reynolds of the Cato Institute, and published in the Wall Street Journal on April 28, 2014. The passage that jolted me came near the end, and reads like this: “If private business had not produced $14.1 trillion, consumers could not possibly have consumed $11.1 trillion. Economies do not grow because consumers spend more; consumers can spend more only if economies grow,” which made me think: What are they trying to do now?

The purpose of the Reynolds article is to show that the politics of supply-side is better than the politics of demand-side. To this end, the author attacks all that the current administration, and all that the Fed have done since 2009 ... to then conclude that: “demand-side has encouraged families and firms to spend … A supply-side solution would incentivize families and firms to produce more income and wealth by minimizing regulation, trade barriers, unreliable money and dispiriting tax rates.”

Aside from that short passage which gives a glimpse as to how Reynolds thinks, you encounter a great deal of fluffed up rhetoric which means very little. Here is an example of that: “Demand-side economists focus on incentives to borrow and spend. Supply-side economists focus on incentives to work, save, invest and launch new businesses. Demand-side economists focus on the uses of income and debt (consumption). Supply-side economists focus on sources of income and wealth.” Putting all that aside, you look at the rest of the article and try to piece together his theory as to why the economy has not been growing at a faster rate.

You notice early on that he asks the question: Did fiscal or monetary stimulus actually “stimulate demand”? Which tells you right away that he acknowledges the secret to growth is higher demand. And in trying to answer the question, he makes the point that the administration and the Fed went about achieving that goal the wrong way. This does not demolish the theory that demand is key to growth; it simply says that he believes the supply-side remedy can do a better job. So you want to know how that would work according to him.

He explains this part by showing where the Fed and the administration did the wrong things. He says that the fed pushed the interest rates down; a move that had the effect of subsidizing “big borrowers (governments and banks) at the expense of small savers (seniors).” This is a mind blowing admission put this bluntly perhaps for the first time. It says that in America, there has been a transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich. As to the fiscal stimulus – what the administration did that was wrong – he quotes all sorts of reports, and displays all sorts of percentages to show that the stimulus did work but not as well as it could have.

He does not explain how supply-side would have produced a higher growth since 2009 given what the economy was going through. What he does, instead, is attack what he calls the “deficit-increasing schemes,” including the payroll tax cuts that the administration has implemented. And so he argues that the resulting increase in debt will have a detrimental effect on future growth. Nothing to explain past failures but plenty to predict future failures if the remedies he proposes will not be implemented.

And so he explains how he sees the future unfold: “Expectations of higher taxes on income will discourage investments … expanding business or improving education [will] dampen if the resulting higher income shoves you into higher tax brackets. Business investments are particularly sensitive to the prospect of higher tax rates on profits.” Which means to say allow the transfer of more wealth from the poor to the rich by adopting a policy of total laissez-faire.

He then throws in something that is truly revealing. It is this: “What is remarkable is that the number of Americans who were neither working nor seeking work soared from 80.9 million to 91.4 million.” He does not explain how this happened because he knows it is the bitter reality used by those who argue that the wealth he acknowledges has been transferred from the poor to the rich in America was invested overseas where the rich Americans are getting even richer while America adds to its unemployment lines.

And what Reynolds is proposing is to continue siphoning off what is left in America to send abroad. It is the same old wine even if it comes in a new bottle.