Saturday, October 25, 2014

Driven by Delusion and Knee-jerk Reaction

It took a group like the editors of the Wall Street Journal to make it possible having the two words “delusion” and “knee-jerk” in the same sentence. They did it by writing a piece under the title: “North Korea's Nuclear Breakthrough” and the subtitle: “Now it can put a warhead atop a ballistic missile. The U.S. needs defenses.” They published the piece on October 25, 2014 in the Journal.

Like they say in the subtitle, North Korea has achieved the technological breakthrough to make the warheads small enough to be carried by a rocket and delivered to far away targets. And the editors admit they know about that because General Curtis Scaparroti, who commands U.S. forces in South Korea, said so. What they omitted saying, however, is that the General added he had no proof of what he was saying. It means that his apparent assertion was a hunch he could not suppress or a deliberate act aimed at starting a debate on the subject.

And so, the editors of the Journal took the bait by plunging into the debate and by delivering what was to be expected of them – the knee-jerk reaction which came in the second part of the subtitle: “The U.S. needs defenses.” To make it sound like this is an important event (somewhat unexpected or at least unexpected to have happened so soon) they go into the brief history of a similar debate that took place a year and a half ago in which they also participated. To make it sound ominous, they begin this part of the conversation with the following: “Shocked? You shouldn't be.” Well, they are not really asking if the readers are shocked; they are using a psychological ploy to suggest that the readers ought to be shocked.

The purpose of taking the readers to a high level of anxiety before proceeding with their presentation is that they know what comes at the end of such a debate. It is that sooner or later, the North Koreans will have miniaturized the bomb enough to place on top of a rocket. In fact, they make that point themselves and try to use it to their advantage before someone else does so, and uses it to neutralize their argument. Here is how they do that: “the important point is that a country with the technological wherewithal to enrich uranium in advanced centrifuges will figure out how to miniaturize the bomb. The technology is nearly 60 years old.”

We are back to square one because the mental gymnastics they performed, starting with a knee-jerk reaction, has added absolutely nothing new to the debate. In fact, the masters of the psychological ploy now make the fatal Freudian slip that buries their argument. Before moving to the second phase of their presentation, they try to consolidate the first phrase but end up shooting themselves in the knee. They do that by quoting the Foreign Minister of North Korea who said something that is in itself irrelevant. But what is relevant is that they start this part of the conversation by referring to the possible miniaturization of the bomb with: “that expectation ought to inform Washington's policy making going forward.” Pow! They now admit they cannot be certain North Korea has achieved the breakthrough but they “expect” that it must have.

They now move to the second part of the presentation which is the delusional part. Having kneecapped themselves knee-jerking into and out of a discussion that came to naught, they counsel the abandonment of the “illusion” that carrots can induce Pyongyang to a better behavior. They want to see the economic boycott of the country, the targeting of its leaders' finances, and a policy that seeks regime change which will include campaigns informing the people of North Korea how bad their masters are … as if they didn't know already.

But the editors of the Journal know that all of this is idle talk because no option was kept out of consideration, and nothing that can be tried was neglected. So why are they advocating something they know will be ignored? They did it to pave the way for what comes next. It is this mother of all delusions: “Israel proved the worth of one BMD [Ballistic Missile Defense] system … and now would be a good time for the Obama Administration to make a similar major investment.”

The fact is that there is no such a thing as a BMD in Israel. There is an ordinary warning system that is coupled to a network of sirens alerting the population of incoming missiles. It gives the people time to hide in bunkers till the danger is over.

Thankfully, the people in charge of defending the North American Continent know all that, and they know how to do their job. They have quick burning, solid-fuel, extremely fast rockets placed in the vicinity of North Korea. Rather than intercept the ICBMs head on – an impossible task – these rockets will catch them in their slow booster phase right after launch, and knock them out of the sky. Sleep well, editors of the Journal; you are safe.