When
you have three characters tied together in what looks like a diplomatic love
triangle, your first impulse is to try determining the character of each. That
is, you want to know what motivates each of them, how each individual operates,
and how each reacts to different situations. In short, you want to see the real
human face that's behind each name to better understand the drama they are
generating.
Keep
that in mind as you read Scott A. Snyder's blog which came under the title:
“The Lure of the Korean Love Triangle,” published on the website of the Council
on Foreign Relations on January 3, 2019. Snyder describes the tangled
relationships that connect the leaders of the two Koreas — Kim Jong-un of the North, and
Moon Jae-in of the South — with
that of the American President, Donald J. Trump. But while narrating the storyline,
Snyder said very little about them as characters.
Lucky
for us, Doug Bandow showed up three days later, and helped in that regard, but
only two thirds of the way there. He wrote an article under the title: “How
Trump Can Truly 'Solve' the North Korea Challenge,” and had it published on
January 6, 2019 in The National Interest. He covered the character of the two Korean
leaders but did not tell enough of what's important about the character of the
American leader. It may be that Bandow believes Donald Trump can be read like
an open book, but he may be mistaken.
The
story, as Scott Snyder tells it, is that North Korea's Kim Jong-un knows, “that
the United States and South Korea are in a stable alliance marriage;” one that
will be difficult to wreck. And so, he figured that the best he can do for now,
is work on convincing them to accept him into a three-way open marriage. But
Snyder believes that Kim has it in the back of his head that the marriage is
not as perfect as it looks. That's because America's Donald Trump has been
complaining that South Korea is not contributing enough cash to pay for the
military cost of the alliance.
And
so, Snyder suspects that Kim will try to exploit the grievances expressed by
Trump, and cause a “US-South Korea alliance divorce,” which would be a tragedy,
says Snyder, given that it was South Korea's Moon that brought Kim and Donald
together in the first place. But love being a mysterious thing, the two former
enemies fell in love with each other, seemingly at first sight. What can you
do? C'est la vie; c'est l'amour.
Despite
all this, Snyder is skeptical that a dalliance between Donald Trump and Kim
Jong-un will last, or that it will lead to the ultimate aim, which is to
denuclearize North Korea. And so, he suggested something he believes may be
more realistic. Since money talks; since South Korea has petty-cash it can
spare; since Kim Jong-un wants to modernize the economy of the North; and since
Donald Trump has trouble financing the wall that Mexico will not pay for — why not have Moon Jae-in
build Kim Jong-un's economy, and Donald Trump's wall? And watch a Hollywood
style happy ending materialize before your very eyes.
Now to Doug Bandow's article. What follows is a condensed version
of the passages that highlight the relationship between the two Korean leaders,
each being animated by the character that makes him tick:
“North Korea's Kim pledged to produce results but threatened to
take a new path to defend his country and the interests of the state if the US
did not respond positively to his efforts. Kim's North Korea is allied with
China, and lags behind Moon's South Korea, which is allied with America. It is
why the North developed the ultimate deterrent. Kim would prefer to take a more
responsible path than his father and grandfather. South Korea's Moon could
create an overwhelming defense if he chose to do so, but he didn't. Kim's
regime already has survived mass starvation. His time in Switzerland made him
committed to economic growth, and he initiated significant investments and
reforms. He obviously enjoys international diplomacy. South Korean diplomats
believe Kim desires to transform the inter-Korean relationship”.
And the following are the passages that tell something about the
character of Donald Trump:
“America's Trump and North Korea's Kim are heading toward another
summit. Trump is the fifth president to insist that North Korea must not
develop nuclear weapons. However, he is the first to engage in direct
negotiations with the North's leadership. If the US did not threaten North
Korea with fire and fury, to use Trump's words, then Kim would do everything to
avoid conflict with America. Irrespective of the love expressed by Trump, Kim
would be foolish to trust him, especially when his government is run by
officials who advocate unilateral strikes”.
Given the threat that Donald Trump has expressed, and given the
kind of administration he assembled, it is no wonder that Bandow thinks it
would be foolish for Kim to trust him.