Jeffrey Mankoff has impressive credentials, and what he writes carries weight. But Mankoff lives in an intellectual milieu that allows him only a certain amount of leeway in how he approaches the subjects he tackles, and how he parses them.
Mankoff's latest article came
under the title: “How Will Russia Respond to the US-China Cold War?” The
article also came under a long subtitle that basically says this: “Russia's
interests are more aligned with those of China than those of America. The
latter's confrontation with China enhances the relationship between it and
Russia.” The article was published on September 29, 2020 in The National
Interest.
Most of what the author says
makes sense, but you can see why it is bland and superficial. It is that these
views are widely shared among his colleagues as shown by the large number of
links which send the reader to other publications for confirmation, additional
information or verification. In fact, these referrals are what provided Mankoff
the creative material that has allowed him to put together his own creation.
What is missing in Mankoff's
piece, as it does in all such pieces, is a highlighting of what America's
rivals are saying and doing right now. Airing such sayings and exposing such
doings are necessary because they would give the author the chance to offer an
informed interpretation of what they mean, as well as suggest what future
actions might follow, and what these actions are meant to accomplish.
Here are the signals I see the
Chinese leaders are sending out. They consider Taiwan to be a breakaway
province, and like every self-respecting country, they want it back in the
family. To do so is even more critical for a China that has reached the status
of superpower. Under normal conditions China would have blockaded the island of
Taiwan by sea and by air, and demanded the governing body to peacefully
surrender or face destruction, capture, trial for treason and the harsh
treatment that comes with that.
The trouble is that these are
not normal circumstances. It's because the leaders of Taiwan are encouraged,
armed and protected by America, which is the other superpower in the world; one
that is powerful militarily even if it began to decline in other ways. Thus,
whichever way the Chinese intend to deal with Taiwan, they must take into
consideration how America might react, and prepare to deal with that.
Enough is said and done every
day by the leaders on both sides to allow Jeffrey Mankoff and other authors,
who write about these matters, to highlight what is meant by the sayings of
those leaders, and what message the military maneuvers in the Pacific are
supposed to send out. What the writers must also do, is offer an informed interpretation
as to what all of this is supposed to accomplish for the antagonists, and how
it might affect the region and the whole world.
Clearly the Chinese are
prepared to go the full distance to bring Taiwan back into the family. But
given that they also have an ambitious program to organize the world according
to the principles of peaceful coexistence among the nations and the different
political systems, they intend to put in motion some very tricky plans. What
could they be? Well, there can only be one way to do these things. It is the
following:
The Chinese will go ahead with
the plan to blockade Taiwan by air and sea, but they will do it simultaneously
with another massive plan to deter the United States from interfering. To
achieve this, China will first build up its forces in such a way as to be able
to hit every American target in the Pacific –– whether it is on dry land or at
sea –– with conventional warheads or small tactical nuclear warheads depending
on the size of the target.
The Chinese will let the
Americans know what they put in place, and warn them that if as little as one
round is fired at them from a rifle, all of America's assets in the Pacific
will be wiped out in one fell swoop. And the Chinese message to the Americans
will end with this friendly advice: You're too smart to start World War III
after all of your assets in the Pacific have been wiped out. And America will
have been deterred.
Seeing that America has been
immobilized, the government of Taiwan will have no choice but to surrender. To
the relief of the human race, this will solve the problem that should never
have been in the first place. But having pushed the world to the brink of
disaster, America will officially have relegated itself to the rank of a
second-rate power … an irresponsible power at that.
Of course, an ending such as
that can be avoided. The way to do it is for the Americans to decide as soon as
possible, to go to the leaders of Taiwan and let them know that America will no
longer act in a way that suggests Taiwan is not a province of China. As well,
any communication that Taiwan will want to have with America must go through
Beijing.
America will also inform Beijing of this decision. The Taiwanese will be upset, of course, and will take some time to think about it. But in the end, they will see that it is better for them to negotiate a peaceful solution with mainland China than try to defy it.