Friday, August 15, 2014

Look what it is they call Strategy

Everywhere you look, every place you go to in search of an answer, you encounter the same refrain; you hear them say: he has no strategy. These would be members of the chattering classes talking about the current American President, Barack Obama who, in their eyes, has not developed a simple mantra they can write on a bumper sticker and use as a prism through which to see and interpret everything he says or does.

They would have liked to see, for example, something like: “if you're not with us, you're against us” which is the mantra and belief to which the previous President, George W. Bush, adhered from among the other strategies and doctrines that the chattering classes failed to see, or did not understand. One of these came to be called his doctrine after he left office, consisting of the attempt to shove democracy the way he understood it, down the throat of people in the Middle East who had other ideas as to how they wished to be governed.

But what is this phenomenon of the chattering classes capturing the same saying and repeating it as if each individual were not an individual but a small part of one and the same wall standing in the echo chamber of mindless monotony? Well, the way to explain this phenomenon is to attribute the tendency to the principle of safety in numbers. It is that to say something different and prove to be wrong guarantees your demise and removal from the clan. But if you follow the animal instinct of “disappearing” among a herd of a million others, the chances that you'll be caught and devoured by a predator reduces to one in a million.

Well then, how does a saying come into existence before being captured and bounced around by the herd of chattering classes? The best way to see how this happens is to look at an example that's in the making. A potential one is given by Reuel Marc Gerecht who wrote an article under the title: “A Ballot-Box Test for the Palestinians” and the subtitle: “It's fashionable to say that democracy won't work for the people who elected Hamas. Let them try again.” It was published on August 15, 2014 in the Wall Street Journal.

This is a piece in which Gerecht tries to revive the old doctrine of George W. Bush – the one that has to do with spreading democracy in the Middle East. But he seems to end up not reviving the doctrine as much as creating a variation on it; one that has the potential to become, if not a new doctrine, at least a mantra that could fit on a bumper sticker. This one could well take on the allure of: Let them try again.

He begins by saying that forcing the Palestinians to adopt the democratic method of governance produced a Hamas victory which proved to be a bad thing as can be attested by the three conflicts that erupted in Gaza between Hamas and Israel. He even goes as far as to suggest that some people view the adoption of the Bush method as an “electoral mistake.” He further explains that there are two opposing views as to whether or not the experience should be repeated because hanging in the balance are two possible outcomes generated by two powerful forces: “Would Hamas's jihadism cost it more votes than its anti-Zionist steadfastness has gained? Would Fatah's relative moderation offset its rampant corruption and its own police-state oppression?”

He discusses the pros and cons of each side in this apparently difficult equation by harking back to a similar experience; one that unfolded in Turkey – another Muslim country. But what he does now is argue the pros and cons as being an internal battle taking place between secularism and religious militancy. Alas, there too, the experience proved to be not such a good idea, he says, because: “Force-feeding secularism didn't prevent, 90 years later, the democratic triumph of an Islamist prime minister, who today has aligned Ankara with Hamas.”

Aiming to show in the end that: “It's questionable whether Israeli concessions to Fatah would change the hostile dynamic between Palestinian secularists and Islamists,” he goes into a long and rambling presentation that allows him to conclude there is a better alternative to Israel making concessions for peace: “A freely elected Palestinian parliament can bless a permanent cessation of hostilities between Palestinian and Israelis. Fatah's ruling elite, constantly nervous about its own legitimacy, cannot.”

This being a positive note on which to discuss something that concerns the Arab world, Gerecht found a way to inject negativity into the presentation. He says the Arab world, especially Egypt and Saudi Arabia, will not like the idea of holding free elections nearby, especially after the experience of what he calls the “Great Arab Revolt” that caused “many Americans to be wary and depressed about the Arab future.”

But “let them try again” anyway.