Monday, August 18, 2014

What's wrong with the other Guy's Shoes?

There is the English saying: Put yourself in his shoes. It means: Think of yourself being in his place, and ask how you would do things under similar circumstances. It also means that even if you do not empathize with the other guy; try at least to understand where he is coming from.

However, when we look at the way that the English speaking elites think and express themselves these days, we could swear that the saying is as alien to them as eating a sandwich of monkey brains. Apparently this is a highly praised delicacy in some places in Asia but not in the West or anywhere else in the world.

Lucky for us, there is an example which illustrates the point relating to empathy or lack of it, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal editors who seem to dislike wearing the other guy's shoes. They wrote: “Some Realism on Russia,” an editorial that also came under the subtitle: “The U.S. has done far too little to deter an invasion of Ukraine.” It was published on August 16, 2014. The editors begin by mocking President Obama who suggested that if Russia invaded Ukraine, the relationship between America and Russia will so deteriorate; the time remaining in his presidency will be wasted trying to get back to a cooperative relationship.

What they do next says that these so-called journalists, editors, thinkers, intellectuals and what have you – are hopelessly incapable of putting themselves in someone else's shoes if only to formulate a realistic view as to how the other person may react to something they are advocating. It also says that when they pretend to write an editorial discussing “Some Realism on Russia” they are making a bad joke. It is like a four-foot standup comedian making jokes about bumping his head against the ceiling of his buddy, the tall basketball player.

The editors do two incompatible things at the same time. First, they pretend to know what the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, wants now and will want tomorrow. What he has done up to now, and what he will do tomorrow. What the outcome of his doings has been and what the ramifications will be. Second, they totally ignore the reality that Putin will react to the things they suggest that President Obama should do, let alone try to anticipate how Putin will react, and answer the very pertinent question: what then?

But to explain their point of view, they say that Putin has a dream: The restoration of greater Russia. Of course, we heard this refrain uttered before, but it was never revealed how someone made that determination, and the editors of the Journal are not revealing the secret either. They also say that Putin has determined that an independent Ukraine will violate his dream. And that's not all because they also know what goes on inside his soul. They say this: “he believes he'll suffer politically at home if the separatists are pushed out of eastern Ukraine.” And you know what this means? It means that Putin “backed himself into a corner,” they say. So you wonder: How much worse can it get? And you realize that according to them, the man must be desperate if not outright dangerous.

As a result of all that, they anticipate that Putin will want to invade Ukraine, which is why they say America must do what is necessary to deter him before he does. And the way to do this, they suggest, is to “raise the costs of his revanchism” beyond what he is willing to pay. The pretense being that they know what he is willing to pay and what he will not, they suggest to President Obama some ideas he could use. They are four: military aid to Ukraine, individual sanctions, financial sanctions and new defensive deployments.

And this makes you wonder if these people have the ability to think rationally at all. They say they want to deter Russia from invading Ukraine, and then recommend arming Ukraine to help it “defeat the separatists more quickly.” How will that deter Russia? They don't say.

As to individual and financial sanctions, they admit that what was done up to now has not worked; yet they do not explain why doing more of the same will work. Still, they have an idea that seems to come from the book of the eternal losers. They say that Mark Dubowitz who is a member of the poop tank for the ripping of democracies, has suggested conflating America's tattered finances with the Patriot Act, a move that will deliver to the dollar the coup de grace that will render it unfit to remain the world's reserve currency for much longer.

We now come to “New defensive deployments,” and again we are reminded that the idea is to deter Russia from invading Ukraine; and yet this is how they argue that point: “Russia has violated the 1987 INF Treaty … The U.S. should send a signal that violations have consequences.” And then what? Do they really believe that Putin will tremble in his boots and decide not to invade Ukraine?

Yes, something like that, they say. Why? Because Obama can start by “repairing the damage he caused relations with Poland and the Czech Republic by reversing the decision to abandon anti-ballistic missile [ABM] systems in both countries.” What? They mean to say this will deter Russia from invading Ukraine? Have they not looked at the map of the region? How will ABMs in far away Poland and the Czech Republic prevent Russia from invading nearby Ukraine if Putin so decides?

Moreover, to reopen that file will revive the old argument that such systems in Poland and the Czech Republic were meant to intercept Iranian missiles, not Russian. And there is more. Polish and Czech analysts who know how these things work have argued that ABM systems in their countries will not protect them. They will protect Western Europe while increasing the chances that a potential aggressor (Iran or Russia) will try to take them out before launching longer range missiles at Western Europe. Thus, instead of protecting them, the systems will make them a prime target, and a more vulnerable one at that.

It is evident, therefore, that besides being in need of lessons in remedial logical thinking, those editors need to take courses on strategic thinking. Maybe eating monkey brains will also raise their IQ a little.