Thursday, November 20, 2014

Income Fairness dictated by Math, not Envy

Coincidence made it so that an article written by John H. Cochrane saw its central thesis demolished by another article; this one written by Charles R. Schwab. Both articles were published on the same day, November 20, 2014 in the Wall Street Journal independently of each other.

John Cochrane wrote: “What the 'Inequality' Warriors Really Want,” a piece that also came under the subtitle: “Confiscating wealth is ultimately about political power. Koch brothers, no. Public-employee unions, yes.” Charles Schwab wrote: “Raise Interest Rates, Make Grandma Smile,” a piece that also came under the subtitle: “With the Fed's near-zero policy, households headed by someone 75 or older have lost $2,700 annually in interest income.”

The central thesis of John Cochrane rests on the idea that you either increase the wealth in which case most people will get wealthy while some will get wealthier, or you redistribute the wealth and see everyone get poorer. The way to increase the wealth is to adopt a system where market forces determine the economy's performance with minimum interference from the government. The way to render everyone poorer is to allow the government to “confiscate” from the rich and give to the poor.

And so, Cochrane takes the arguments that were put forward by what he calls the “inequality warriors” in support of the idea that inequality is bad for the economy, and ridicules them one by one. What he does not do is put forward an argument to show how or why inequality helps to increase wealth. All he says in this regard is that there can be bad inequality (such as that produced by crony capitalism, for example,) but there is also good inequality where entrepreneurs start something new and get rich in the process. In fact, he asserts that most inequalities are of the good sort.

This approach to understanding how an economy works is so superficial, it can easily lead to the conclusion that the quest for fairness in the distribution of wealth is based on envy. This point made, someone like Cochrane can then push the philosophy further, and posit that the envy goes further than the desire to lead an upscale lifestyle; it goes to the desire to secure more political clout.

What he avoids discussing is what defines a market and by extension what defines an economy. Here is that definition: A market – therefore an economy – is said to exist when someone makes a product that someone else exchanges for his labor or for a product he owns. With this picture in mind, we can see that the level of wealth a system is said to have attained, is determined by the ability of such system to produce as much as possible, therefore consume as much as possible. This says that if you are an economy which produces more than its consumers have the ability to consume, you are not a wealthy economy. Also, if you consume more than the producers can produce, you are not a wealthy economy either.

This leads to a philosophical certainty that is as precise as mathematics. It is this: If the level of production is equal to 100, therefore the level of consumption must also be 100 to reach 100% efficiency. If you tilt the economy one way or the other, you have less efficiency than that, therefore have a poorer economy that will affect everyone negatively. We must, therefore, conclude that equality is not only a philosophical concept; it is a mathematical precision.

How this works in real life is clearly demonstrated in the Charles Schwab article. He tells what happened to 44 million senior citizens who are nothing more to the economy than consuming units living off the savings they have accumulated when they were working. It happened that the central bank – which is independent of the government – made a market decision and adopted a near-zero interest rate policy. This resulted in the seniors losing thousands of dollars in interest income every year.

When the Charles Schwab Corp. did the math, they discovered that 58 billion dollars in annual interest income were lost to seniors. Factoring the multiplier effect into that, the result has shown a loss of 115 billion dollars to the economy, something like 0.7 % cost to the growth of the GDP. And this could have generated an additional three quarter of a million jobs.

John Cochrane can have all the fun he wants ridiculing what he calls the inequality warriors, but math is math, and he cannot laugh at that.