Monday, November 24, 2014

They still don't get it, will they ever?

The editors of the Wall Street Journal still don't get it. Apparently they don't get it when they are talked to like adults; so maybe we should try talking to them like children. Here is their problem, expressed in their own words: “On taxes, [the claim is] that the rich don't pay their fair share, yet the most affluent one-fifth of taxpayers supplied 68.7% of the federal revenue for 2011.”

That's what they wrote in an editorial that came under the title: “More Redistribution, Less Income” and the subtitle: “Obama has spread the wealth, but the poor and middle class haven't benefited.” It was published in the Journal on November 24, 2014. They later buttressed their point with this: “The Middle class were households with market income between $49, 800 and $83,300 on average. In 2011, they paid about $7,400 in taxes and received $16,500 in transfers, for an average after-tax income of $59,000. That implies an effective tax rate of minus -13.7%.”

This means that the highest earners who contributed as much as positive +18.9% of their income to the federal revenue, saw their tax dollars transferred to the poor and the middle class. In the eyes of the Journal editors, the rich gave and the poor took. Therefore, there should be no problem. It should be case closed if not mission accomplished.

No. Not really. To put things in simple terms such that a child can understand, let's say that a family making on average $68,366 in market income and transfers would rather earn a million dollars a year and pay $189,000 in taxes, which would leave it with $811,000 to spend. This will be more desirable than having to live on a measly $59,000 no matter the sources of the revenue.

That example demonstrates the absurdity of discussing the share of taxes in terms of percentages because the approach hides the reality that the rich pay a higher percentage only because they have the wherewithal. On the other hand, someone earning $59,000 could not possibly pay $189,000 even though he would love to because it would imply he earned a million dollars. And the flip side of this is that someone paying $189,000 would not want to receive $16,500 in transfers because it would imply he will have to live on a measly $59,000.

This being the premise upon which the editors of the Journal have based their argument, they'll have to trash the whole idea and start from scratch. The trouble however, is that instead of doing just that, they tried to build on their shaky premise by adding two other layers of absurdity on top of it. First, to argue that the poor have not benefited from what they call the redistribution of wealth, they say that after-tax income fell by 1.9% without pointing to a single evidence that the redistribution is the cause, and that the fall of income is the effect.

Second, they report on a footnote that was made by the CBO to the effect that a change in market income causes people to change their behavior. Gee! what an insight that most people miss. Quick, tell it to those who hope to win the lottery. Tell them that if they win, they’ll be tempted to change their behavior. Too bad “the CBO did not attempt to model these behavioral effects,” they say but still, they point out that such effects “can't be good for upward mobility.” Again, they don't say how or why they reached this conclusion.

They end the article by enunciating a conclusion in a roundabout way, having failed once again to point to the nexus that is supposed to tie the cause and the effect. This is what they wrote: “The main lesson … is a verdict on Obamanomics. Presidents who put reducing inequality above increasing prosperity end up with less growth and more inequality.” How does it happen? Why does it happen? When does it happen? No response.

Having convinced themselves they contributed valuable insight to the debate, they feel confident enough to give advice to someone they believe will run for the presidency of the United States two years from now. They tell her to avoid Obamanomics, especially if it is going to be on steroids … in the European style.

And they say why this would be a bad idea by making a guess that is both rare and brilliant in its implications. Brace yourself for, here it comes: “Our guess is that most Americans would prefer to earn more income.”

Wow! Someone will have to award these people a prize in economics – perhaps in behavioral economics.