Thursday, December 24, 2015

Two competing Analogies for the Mideast

Whether or not we realize it, we often communicate by making analogies that illustrate and explain what we say. At times, the analogy is so clear; we readily see what it means. At other times, the analogy can be wrapped in a rhetoric that proves too difficult to parse … but we make the effort to understand what the author is trying to communicate, anyway.

Years of communicating with others in one of the several languages I know, have taught me that the best way to illustrate situations which fall in the realm of the humanities, is to use analogies which fall in the realm of the sciences. And this is how I'll proceed to explain my point of view with regard to the current situation in the Levant; also to respond to an article that was written by Richard Cohen.

The article in question came under the title: “No, Mr. President, staying out of Syria didn't save lives. It cost them.” It was written by Richard Cohen as mentioned earlier, and was published on December 21, 2015 in the Washington Post. That title is clear as to the content of the article, a point of view with which I disagree.

Whatever the exact moment or the reason why the Levant imploded into the mess it is now, explanations as to how that situation came to be was given by various pundits and talking heads. Looking at the reasons why they say things happened the way that they did, and why history unfolded in the manner that it did, we may parallel those reasons with one of two analogies we take from simple and easy to understand science.

The first analogy is about a forest that's on fire. Regardless as to what started the fire or why, the way to prevent it from consuming the entire forest, is to go ahead of it and cut a few trees thus create a corridor that is wide enough to prevent the fire from spreading past the corridor. The net result is that in order to save the forest, we caused a small damage (cutting a few trees) to save all the other trees.

Whether or not the people who have advocated American intervention in Syria and those who do now, cite that analogy, their explanation follows a reasoning which parallels the storyline of the forest on fire. The essence of their argument is that American smart bombs added to Assad's barrel bombs may at first cause a little more damage, but America's bombs will eventually prevent the barrel bombs from spreading throughout Syria.

The other analogy is about an oil tanker that is leaking its cargo. The gooey slick is growing and spreading in all directions. To prevent an environmental catastrophe you must do several things at the same time. You must contain the slick by circling it with a floating belt. You must get a crew that will work on plugging the hole in the tanker from where the oil is leaking. And you must call on the available vessels – which are equipped with pumps that suck leaked oil – to come and lend a hand.

Whether or not the people who warn against American intervention in Syria cite that analogy, their explanation follows a reasoning that parallels the storyline of the leaky tanker. The essence of their argument is that the situation in the Levant is so precarious, what needs to be done is not create more violence, but do the painstaking work that is required on many fronts at the same time. These would be fronts like the political, economic, diplomatic and reconstructive participation of all the stakeholders.

The question now is which of the two analogies best describes what was needed in Syria: was it the American bombing of the country or the patient and quiet work that was undertaken by President Obama? This question resolved, we ask: what now? How should America handle the situation going forward?

To help us answer those questions, we can look at something we have so far neglected, and draw another analogy that may help. We begin with the observation that the destruction of Iraq has sent shock waves everywhere in the Arab and Muslim worlds. Because shock waves dampen by themselves, the best way to diminish their effect is to let them die a natural death.

The mistake you can make is to try dampening the shock wave by opposing it with another shock wave. This will aggravate the problem further, which is what America will do if it tried to intervene militarily in the Levant.