Monday, July 4, 2016

May this Whiff of fresh Air continue to grow

Two articles have appeared lately that feel like a whiff of fresh air has started to blow through the pages and websites of America's print and electronic publications.

In fact, there was a time when John L. Allen Jr., editor of the Catholic Crux publication, was beginning to sound like he was pulled into the vortex of the Jewish hate and propaganda machine, saying things that were false and inappropriate about Egypt. Thank God he pulled away from the abyss, having redeemed himself. Let's hope he remains redeemed.

And there was a time when you could not read something put out by the Carnegie Endowment for Peace that was not spun in such a way as to paint Egypt's image negatively regardless of merit. Well, Christopher J. Cox, a freelance writer and researcher, has now produced an article that is opinionated – which is legitimate – but is not spun negatively in any deliberate sense. Let's hope things remain that way.

The Cox article came under the title: “Egypt's Loyal Opposition” and the subtitle: “The only formal political opposition groups left in Egypt are continuing to play the regime's game and, predictably, losing.” It was published on June 29, 2016 on the website of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace.

Most of the article describes the jockeying that's done by the multitude of political parties existing in Egypt today, each trying to position itself at the best possible juncture from where it hopes to implement the agenda it put together for the country. The jockeying is dizzying as it is, and I have no intention to add to the Cox description of it, or subtract something from it.

But I take issue with what he said about the Egyptian economy. It is this: “The military is estimated to own around 40-65 percent of the Egyptian economy.” This cannot be true from what is known about that economy. Yes, everything related to the military is classified, but we do not need a great deal of information to determine whether or not the visible part of the economy can coexist with this much of it being hidden.

What we know is that Egypt's workforce is 27 million strong. All these people are accounted for because they are visible farmers, miners and other workers employed in the construction, utilities and service industries. The latter include the health, education, tourist, leisure and financial sectors of the economy.

There are 6 million bureaucrats who push paper at all levels of government; 6 million who farm their own plots of land to feed the nation; 6 million who work in mines, quarries, factories, industrial storage and the utilities; 2 million who work in construction; 2 million who work in tourism and the leisure industries; 2 million who teach at all levels; 1 million who work in the financial industries and 2 million who are looking for work.

Stacked against these are half a million conscripts, half of whom being air, navy and submarine personnel that do nothing more than stay close to their equipment. The other half – a fraction of one percent of the nation's workforce – are infantry recruits, some of whom are asked to work in factories producing equipment for the military. And there is a handful that works the land producing just enough food to feed a small fraction of the military personnel. No matter what these people produce and no matter how you slice it, they can only account for a tiny fraction of the economy.

Moreover, 80 percent of the material production in Egypt – from food to textiles to building material to furniture to appliances to hi-tech products – is made by privately owned small and medium size businesses. The remaining 20 percent is produced by big business, most of which is owned jointly by Egyptians and foreigners. These include the oil, natural gas, petrochemical, cement, steel, mining, power generation, transport equipment and communication industries. And the military has nothing to do with these companies.

Thus, anyone who wants to speak credibly of the role that the military plays in the Egyptian economy, must account for the size of the “unseen” workforce that's employed by the military. They must also identify the products made in its facilities that supposedly represent two fifths (40 percent) or two thirds (65 percent) of the economy.

As to the John Allen article, it came under the title: “Egypt's Christians already have a savior, they need a friend,” published on July 3, 2016 on the Crux website. What I can say about this title is that Egypt's Christians do not need a savior at this time. They also have all the friends they need; what they do not want to see in their midst are so-called friends that turn out to be deadlier than the bite of a snake.

Allen Jr. proceeds to tell stories and to present viewpoints, some of which may raise a few eyebrows, but the best part is the way that he ends the article. When condensed, its sounds like this:

“Many Christians in places such as Egypt would say they've already got a Savior … they've got a better shot at it from al-Sisi than the other plausible options. At the very least, that's a view worth considering as Western governments and political activists ponder their attitudes about a part of the world that's not their own, and where they don't have to live with the consequences of whatever choices they make”.

And I say amen to that.