Saturday, August 1, 2020

Self-delusion yesterday, today and tomorrow

Here is an article that shows how and why America has been living in a state of self-delusion since the end of World War Two.

It is a piece that came under the title: What Mike Pompeo doesn't understand about China, Richard Nixon and US foreign policy,” and the subtitle: “Secretary Pompeo, advocating a policy of transforming China, is proposing a course that is bound to fail.” It was written by Richard Haass and published on July 25, 2020 on the website of the Council on Foreign Relations.

You'll see in the article that Richard Haass is living in the present, reminiscing about the past and speculating about the future. Whether he functions as an employee of the American government, which he does from time to time, or he functions as a journalist, Haass's views say important things about the subject he is discussing (today it is China) and also about America itself. This being the case, let us say that his current article reflects with clarity what Haass is thinking about China, so much so that the reader will have no trouble deciphering those thoughts. But what about America? Reading Haass's article, can we learn something about America we did not know before?

To find out, we go through the article in search of assertions that Haass makes about the current situation, the way he understands it. We find a passage that is ideal because the author speaks about China today, doing so to express what he believes are the facts on the ground. And the good thing about Haass’s approach is that he carefully avoids lacing his observations with opinions about the past, or visions concerning future developments. Here is that passage:

“To be sure, China faces enormous challenges: an aging society that will soon start shrinking dramatically, a badly damaged environment, an inadequate public health system, an unsustainable economic model that relies on massive amounts of investment for growth, and a top-heavy leadership that stifles creativity and has difficulty correcting its mistakes”.

Is that it, you ask? Yes, that's it. Is he serious, you ask? Yes, Richard Haass is serious. But the reality is that when it comes to a nation whose population is a fifth that of the planet, none of these woes amount to a hill of beans, you correctly remark. If so, there is only one thing we can do to deepen our understanding. It is to go over the five assertions made by Haass in that passage, and see if there is validity in any of them:

First, China is not the only shrinking society in the world today. It is happening to Japan, Russia and most of the Eastern and Western European countries. But unlike China where the phenomenon was an artificially induced process, those other countries suffered from a natural organic process that's difficult to control, much less reverse. As to the Chinese, they decreed that a family can have only one child because they wanted to have a high rate of savings so as to score a high rate of growth so as to modernize as soon as possible. Now that they have done all that, they are letting families have more children. Problem solved.

Second, recall that things were so bad environmentally in Japan during the decades of the '60s, '70s and '80s, due to the rapid industrialization of the country –– a newspaper was able to develop a photograph in a stream that was used as drinking water, and yet was polluted with chemicals discharged from nearby plants. In addition to that, lead poisoning throughout Japan, had reached several times the acceptable levels. So, what happened then? What happened is that the Japanese solved all their problems. The Chinese are aware of the solutions, and are implementing them in their country. Problems on their way to be solved.

Third, when it comes to having a system of public health that is adequate, the Americans are the last to pass judgment on others. And let's leave it at that.

Fourth, it is perhaps fitting for an American to chide the Chinese who rely on investment to achieve growth, given that it is the only way to achieve real growth. Of course, there is another way to make believe that growth has been achieved when it hasn't. It is that to show growth that isn’t there, some rely on changing the definition of the components used to measure growth in the GDP. Well then, let it be known that China's way is the only way to sustain real growth in the economy. This is why investors in real industries from around the world flock to China, whereas they flee the United States of America.

Fifth, as to the leadership of China, the regime that's in charge of the country today, is the one that was there when the Cultural Revolution that catapulted China into the modern age, was launched. Massive strides were made during that time, to the point that China is now challenging America in every field of endeavor. If that's not clear-eyed leadership, what is?

What this says in the final analysis, is that the Americans have lost the ability to see things as they are and make useful decisions based on reality. What they do instead is imagine things to be the way they wish them to be, and base their decisions on the quicksand of self-delusion. This is why they end up getting swallowed each time.