Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Quiet Strategist Surprises Loud Tacticians


Even today – several decades after their passing – historians are debating whether Franklin Delano Roosevelt was a good President or a bad one; whether Harry Truman was a good President or a bad one. Now imagine having to pass judgment on someone like Mohamed Morsi who is still alive, and still President of Egypt where he has been for a period of only a few months.

Guessing would not be a wise thing to do, of course, but given that the man has come to office after a relatively quiet revolution, an assessment can still be attempted – not to pass judgment on the performance of a President – but to compare what he accomplished in the time that he has been in office; and compare that to what was expected. To be blunt, what some people expected of him was so unrealistic, it sounded like asking for miracles. They wanted to see the start of a move to lift the country up to the level of a modern industrial state but were disappointed to learn it may take some time before this can be realized.

If not miracles, what did the President accomplish in the period that he has been in office? Well, he put together a plan that will require the cooperation of companies in the private and public sectors to fully implement. In addition, these companies will team up with international organizations to secure the financing, acquire the know-how and if necessary, sign up foreign talent, to pull off the massive projects envisioned in the plan. Mr. Morsi estimated that it may require as much as 200 billion dollars in foreign currencies, and trillions more in the local currency (the Egyptian pound) to complete the project. And he started to travel around the world to discuss the plan with foreign governments, and pitch it to the organizations that may decide to participate.

Thus, while the criticism piled up by those who were eager to see a physical proof that something was done to realize the dream, and while the short term tacticians were expressing skepticism about the President's ability to pull it off, he was doing what was necessary to do just that. To his credit, he persevered even when the eager ones and the skeptics could not understand that before seeing the implementation of a plan, there had to be a period of time during which the conception, formulation and preparation are done quietly; and done aside from the staring eyes of onlookers.

Slowly but surely, details of the plan did surface, and they include the following:

First, there is the development of the Suez Canal Zone. This would be the Northern part of the Western shore of the Canal. The idea is to erect industrial zones where some privileges will be extended to international companies that will want to locate their plants in Egypt and export their products to the world. They will use the port of Port Said on the Mediterranean Sea to reach Europe and North America, or use the port of Suez on the Red Sea to reach Eastern Africa and Asia.

Second, there is the development of the Sinai. This would be the central part of the peninsula that forms the Eastern shore of the Canal. The discovery of quarries, coal, base metal deposits and aquifers made it clear that the Sinai was good not only for its resort regions near the seashores but also for other riches away from there. Thus, mining and agriculture are envisaged for that region.

Third, to take advantage of Egypt's position on the world map, several transportation projects are envisaged in the Morsi plan. Whereas the Sumed (Suez-Mediterranean) pipeline running parallel to the Canal transports crude oil from South to North, it will be doubled to transport it from North to South as well. In addition, a parallel railway track and a highway will be constructed, all of which will make the worldwide North-South and East-West traffic in goods an important feature of Egypt's economy.

Fourth, the opening of new areas to prospect for metals and minerals. Hydrocarbons, base and precious metals have already been discovered almost throughout the landmass of Egypt as well as its territorial waters, but a number of areas have not yet been opened for prospecting. They will soon be to local and international companies in the Eastern and Western Deserts, Upper Egypt, the Delta, The Gulf of Suez and the Mediterranean Sea.

Fifth, in addition to becoming a hub of transportation, the plan envisages turning the country into a hub of energy. To this end, Egypt will rely not only on its hydrocarbon deposits but will import as much as it can from the neighboring states, refine it and manufacture petrochemical products of all sorts for local consumption and for export. In addition, the production of energy from wind, solar and nuclear sources will be developed and deployed to serve Egypt and Europe.

Sixth, when you are a hub for transportation and energy, you also strive to become a hub for communication. To this end, Egypt is already well advanced in the research, development and manufacture of high-tech products. It now has two centers modeled after America's famous “Silicon Valley,” and has a third center under construction. Its universities and technical colleges graduate a large number of engineers who – while still in school – enter competitions run by such institutions as NASA, Microsoft and IBM to come ahead of contestants from around the world and have their projects adopted or win prizes. Thus, cable, fiber optics and microwave communication will come into Egypt from everywhere, and will be distributed from there to everywhere in the world.

Seventh, when you will have all this going for you, what you will need in addition will be great cities in which to live. This is why many will be built where there is nothing now but desert and desolation. These cities will require water above and beyond what the Nile and the aquifers provide, thus seawater will be desalinated by machines that are now designed, perfected and produced locally.

And of course, you will need modern transit in the cities and high speed systems between them. This is why river ports, high speed rail, regional airports and the like are envisaged in the Morsi plan.

All in all, while the eager ones and the skeptics were making noise and were feeding false stories of gloom and doom to anyone who would listen, the President of Egypt was doing his job quietly and confidently. His critics may or may not be impressed now, but he is too busy to pay attention.

All the while, the smart ones from among the CEOs of corporations worldwide will look at the plan to see where they can contribute and make an honest buck for their shareholders.