The stakes are high but the way to safeguard them depends on playing the crude game of diplomatic poker with finesse and a great deal of acumen, says Lyes Mauni Jalali in his own style of writing.
The state of the
world during the first half of the twentieth century was such that America had
given rise to men who played the diplomatic poker game well enough to make
America’s voice heard abroad. But then, America lost the ability to produce
statesmen of that caliber while facing a situation that cries out for someone
to come along and inject wisdom in America’s foreign policy — or see the country fall behind its main
competitors and be supplanted by them irreversibly.
The big issue at
this time concerns the ongoing negotiations in Vienna regarding the Iran
nuclear deal. The main poker game is played between Iran and the United States,
but everyone else at the table—known as the (P5+1)—also plays a kind of minigame on the side
because they too have much that’s riding on the outcome of these negotiations
whichever way they will go.
One minigame that
attracted the attention of Lyes Jalali, involves the bourgeoning relationship
between China and Iran. He wrote an article to express his thoughts under the
title: “Are Iran and China Allying against America?” and the subtitle: “Iran
has neither fully committed to the ‘East Pivot,’ nor will it do so if it can
get an agreement with the West. But failing an agreement with the West, Tehran
will fully commit to China.” The article was published on January 8, 2022 in
the National Interest.
Jalali begins his
discussion by lamenting the reality that America lost the finesse and acumen
that allowed it in the past to play the diplomatic poker game and do well on
the international stage, when it had the right people in the right jobs doing
the right things. This is how he expressed that sentiment:
“Blessed with decades of prosperity and security,
we have lost the tradition of thinking geopolitically about
international politics (as practiced by Alfred Mahan, Walter Lippmann, George
Kennan, and Henry Kissinger). It is this habit of mind that is much needed in
an assessment of Iran—an awareness for the nature of change in global politics
and a sense of what opportunities and difficulties present themselves
accordingly”.
It is obvious that
Lyes Jalali was moved to feel that way by more than the ongoing Vienna
negotiations. But it is not too difficult to see how and why this happened to
him. It is that Vladimir Putin’s performance on the world stage has been
spectacular. Reduced to less than half what it was during the Cold War, Russia
under Putin, has been punching well above its weight, eclipsing an America that’s
caught in an endless game of haggling, not only with the rest of the world, but
also with itself and against itself … and still getting nowhere.
The test of
America’s ability to renew itself and play a leading role on the international
stage, will yield its result when Iran will have made its decision on whether
it will pivot towards China or towards the West. And that Iranian decision will
depend on how America plays the poker cards it is holding. As of now, says
Jalali, Iran is in a neutral position. It clearly would prefer to tilt towards
the West if given a chance, but will decide to turn towards the East in a heart
beat if given no choice. And all depends on how much finesse and acumen America
will inject into the game as it will play it in the weeks and months ahead.
The level of sophistication
that’s required of America when it comes to playing its middle Eastern strategy,
becomes apparent, says Jalali, when you consider the relationship that exists
between China and Russia who are at the same time friends and enemies (or frenemies)
as the saying goes. They are friends because they both oppose the United
States, especially when it comes to its presence in the Middle East. But they
are also enemies — or at least foes — when it comes to
competing to win over the hearts and minds of the Middle Easterners. And that reality
will make America’s maneuverings in the Middle East, especially with regard to
the Iran nuclear issue, that much more tricky.
For these reasons,
Lyes Jalali suggests that it is better for America to consider the Iran nuclear
issue as being part and parcel of China’s rise to the level of superpower, and
seriously take into consideration its effort, through the Belt and Road Initiative,
to supplant the United States from where it will be pushed out by the combined
effort of the Chinese and the Russians.
Meanwhile, says
Lyes Jalali, America should think seriously about ending the dispute with Iran
regarding the nuclear issue. To avoid having to decide on whether America should
lift the sanctions before Tehran complies with the terms of the deal or the
other way around, Jalali suggests a number of steps to be taken simultaneously
by both sides, that should be easy to implement, thus resolve many outstanding
issues of great concern to America and the world.
As important as
resolving these outstanding issues, is for America to learn the lesson that it
must never again listen to those who advise it to serve the interests of others
by doing what is detrimental to its own interests and the interests of its own
people.