Those who run around proclaiming the flippant saying that “Israel is the envy of the world,” have found a corollary that twins with it. They now ask if “Egypt is about to collapse.” In so doing, they reinforce the two lies in the hope of making them stick in the minds of people that may be interested in the truth, but not so much as to dig deep into it.
The people behind all of this — call them professional
haters of Egypt — recruited David Schenker, and had him write an article in
which he explains their newly formulated point of view. The article came under
the title: “Is Egypt Headed Toward Collapse?” and the subtitle: “Egypt has been
described as ‘too big to fail.’ However, a further deterioration is possible.” It
was published on May 5, 2023 in National Interest.
Schenker begins his discussion with a paragraph that
paints a picture of Egyptian and American officials who are perfectly serene concerning
the state of the Egyptian economy. But this is deceptive, said Schenker. How
does he know that? He knows it because the Egyptian businessmen he met (but
never named) were despondent, knowing that the economy was in freefall, he
assures us.
Well, that was in February, said Schenker, and this is
the month of May, a business quarter later that’s long enough to have affected
the life of an economy. But Egypt does not seem to have hit bottom as yet, or
is about to do so anytime soon. In fact, what Schenker does next dissuades you
from entertaining the idea that the economy is in a hurry to collapse. Look how
Schenker did that: “Today’s precipitous decline was set in motion nearly a decade ago”. Well
then, how many more decades will it take for a shaky economy to collapse? Don’t
hold your breath.
What’s really going on today in that part of the world, anyway?
We begin to understand what’s going on when we study the pattern of
games that foreign investors play, and we decipher the intent of the tricks
they pull for the purpose of obtaining favorable business deals. We also
understand why the recipients of foreign investments act the way they do in
response.
Think back to a time when hydrocarbons were discovered in
abundance in Egypt, and around its maritime economic zone. Fearing that this
will motivate the country to sell its resources at a price so cheap, it will
lower the price of hydrocarbons throughout the region, the Gulf oil moguls offered
to help Egypt in every way possible to help it maintain a tough bargaining
stance while negotiating with the big oil companies.
But now that the moguls are running around the world — along
with everyone else, looking for good investment opportunities but finding them
dwindling — look what’s happening:
“Inflow of capital from the Gulf is predicated on military divestment
from the economy. The government published a list of thirty-two military-owned
companies to be sold off. Optimistic appraisals of this initiative faded when
it emerged that only minority shares in these enterprises were on offer. While
some assets on the block may be appealing, Gulf investors are unlikely to
invest in non-controlling interests in opaquely operated—and perhaps
overvalued—state-owned enterprises. Like oil-rich Gulf States, the IMF is
skeptical about Sisi’s commitment to actually sideline the military from the
Egyptian economy. The first review in the four-year program was slated for
March 15, but the IMF has delayed the evaluation—and the disbursal of loan
tranches—until Cairo makes progress on privatization”.
Clearly, therefore, when we recall the stance of the Egyptian
and American officials who exhibited serenity concerning the stability of the
Egyptian economy, and we contrast such reality against that of the self-serving
would-be investors, we can only conclude that there is more credibility in the
behavior of those professing the “steady as she goes” method of dealing with an
economy that’s now firing on all cylinders — than those who pretend to panic seeing the
economy collapse, having predicted for decades that it will.
The unrefuted truth is that the revenues from the Suez
Canal that used to be below 5-billion dollars a year, has now exceeded the 8-billion
mark. Tourism is getting back to where it was before the pandemic. Remittances
from the expats living abroad has exceeded the 30-billion a year. Egypt is
becoming the number one or near-number-one exporter of citrus fruits,
strawberries, onions and tomatoes. Its fish production went up ten folds, from 300,000
tons a year before implementing the aquaculture business to 3-million tons
after it.
In addition, the country is fast becoming an energy hub,
producing and selling both conventional and “green” energy for itself and its
neighbors. Big and small local and international companies are falling over
each other trying to establish businesses in Egypt where they produce the
pocket calculators and the jumbo flat screens, the toasters and the microwave
ovens, the heaters and the air-conditioners, the freezers and the refrigerators
… and everything else that’s used in a household or an office.
No, Egypt is not about to collapse, and the proof is that
the imagined collapse is nothing more than the daydream of its professional
haters.