Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Embrace the New Paradigm or Perish

Looking at the situation in the advanced economies in general, and more specifically at the United States of America, we see that the common wisdom at this time is that the existing paradigm is dying. It is being replaced by a new paradigm, but this is something that no one has yet defined. Well, I'm not going to define it here or now because I don't have enough insight about it to make such attempt. I do have enough, however, to make a few observations.

In addition to the revival of the ancient classics in the arts and in philosophy as brought to Europe by the Arabs, the Renaissance brought the spirit of exploration to the inhabitants of Southern Europe who were exposed to travelers that came to them with exotic products, and tall tales about far away intriguing places. As it happened also, it was shortly after the start of the Renaissance that the Industrial Revolution began to take roots in Northern Europe. Eventually, the two met and the combination gave rise to the paradigm that is with us today, and that is said to be on the wane.

So we ask: What are the features of this paradigm? There can be no doubt that exploration and exploitation were the two original features that initially motivated the people who sought to conquer the world. These people had mastered the technology of iron and steel which they adapted to produce effective machines of war. Superior in this field to everyone else, they were propelled to go out in the world and grab what they could. They colonized much of Africa and Asia, and also Australia and the Americas. As a result of these activities, they experienced explosive growth in their economies; growth that remained with them for a long while.

But the European legacy has also been that these people fought each other for centuries over religion and philosophical beliefs. This kind of fighting abated to be replaced by fighting each other over the riches of the colonies as each jurisdiction sought to create its own empire. In fact, the Europeans fought each other to the point of exhaustion, and so they started getting kicked out of the colonies. The legacy they were left with by the mid-twentieth century was that the growth in the economy they were experiencing stayed with them as they rebuilt themselves from the effects of their inter-European wars – referred to as World War I and II. But then the growth came to a crawl, even to a halt in some places when the elements that made it possible dried up.

Meanwhile, the people that settled in Australia and the Americas had a better luck because these places were sparsely populated, and there were not enough indigenous people to kick them out. In fact, they became the transplanted indigenous population that kicked out the European powers and declared themselves independent nations. They kept some of the European traits and acquired new ones, thus transforming their cultures into something distinguishable from those of Europe. And it is in the part of North America, called the United States, that the biggest transformation has occurred and a very different paradigm emerged.

There, the descendants of the various British ethnic groups that did not get along well in Britain, got along in the United States, even allied themselves with France that was Britain's archenemy; and they declared themselves independent of Britain. In possession of a piece of real estate that was fabulously rich in natural resources, they opened their doors to immigrants from everywhere on the planet. Many of the individuals who went through these doors were of the adventurous, entrepreneurial, independent and tinkering type. They melted their experiences into one pot, thus created a society that is different from anywhere else. But the one thing that America (so nicknamed affectionately) could not escape was the force of the laws of economics. Requiring the same elements of expansion that produce growth in the economy, America began to experience the phenomenon of low growth when those elements started to dry up.

What to do now? There is no doubt that America, in addition to the developed nations of Europe and the Asian nation of Japan are facing a new paradigm that will not be fully understood till much time has passed. It is, however, a paradigm that they must embrace and learn to live with if they want to avoid being relegated to the rank of have-been nations. As of now, each jurisdiction has a different set of visible problems, and with the exception of America, they all seem to have a notion as to what they need to do next. And they are proceeding in that direction.

The problem in America that needs to be dealt with as soon as possible is that despite the great depression early in the twentieth century and the various recessions that hit the nation from time to time, the Americans never developed the institutional framework or the approaches that would carry them through a prolonged period of slow growth or no growth at all. What they must do first of all is develop the belief that America is not here to serve them but that she is home to them. They need to develop a filial sort of affection for her the way that other people feel toward their respective motherlands. To quote John Kennedy whose locution they never seem to have understood: “Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country.”

This done, they will not surrender their fate to a system of governance based on rigid laws that must be obeyed even when proven destructive to the causes they are supposed to protect, but based on the judgment of human beings they elect to run the ship of state. They must come to regard the nation not as a train that runs on railway tracks it must follow or be derailed, but regard the nation as a seagoing ship that navigates through steady times and stormy times, in friendly waters and treacherous waters. And they must understand that these are waters where decisions are made a thousand at a time at every moment without respite, and where they are amended without notice to suit the constantly changing situations.

In short, the Americans must begin to feel secure in their individualism, and they must cease fearing that the collective is out there preparing to pounce on them and take what they possess. When they will have put themselves in this frame of mind, they will be able to construct the institutions and the approaches that will be flexible enough to detect the fast changing situations in the world, and modulate their responses (both political and economic) just as fast; also respond adroitly not clumsily as they do now most of the time.