Two
articles speculating on what the future may look like past the COVID-19
pandemic, were published recently in the online publication, Project Syndicate
on the same day, April 24, 2020.
Between
them, the two articles seem to present a comprehensive treatment of the
subject, except for one aspect of reality which, when taken into consideration,
forces a change in the conclusions that were reached by the authors of the
articles.
One
article came under the title: “COVID-19 and the Thucydides Trap,” and was
cowritten by the two writers Yu Yongding and Kevin P. Gallagher. The other
article came under the title: “The international Order After COVID-19,” and was
written by Robert Malley.
The
summary reflecting the content of the Yongding and Gallagher article was given
as follows: “After years of deepening Sino-American divisions, perhaps it is
not surprising that the COVID-19 pandemic has made matters worse. But if both
countries take a clear-eyed view of their own interests, they will see that
cooperation is the best medicine now”.
As
to the summary reflecting the content of the Malley article, it was given as
follows: “At first blush, the coronavirus pandemic seems likely to corroborate
the argument for deeper international cooperation to confront shared global
challenges. But crises tend to intensify and accelerate preexisting trends – in
this case, the rise of anti-globalist nativism”.
Writing
from Beijing, Yongding and Gallagher say that the COVID-19 pandemic has
destroyed the trust between China and America. They see that in the future, a
relationship from among three possible ones will develop between the two
nations. As to their preference, they dismiss two of the possibilities, and
choose the one that says the best way to move forward is to restore mutual
trust between the two powers. Here is how they put it in their own words:
“...by focusing on common interests and fighting common enemies,” such as
diseases for example.
Writing
from Washington, Malley sees that two opposing narratives have already
developed and are ongoing. He says they are competing as if in a tug-of-war
about how the world, “ought to be governed.” According to him, one narrative
says that the pandemic has demonstrated that no one can go it alone, whether
motivated by nationalism or by the sense of isolationism. As to the other
narrative, Malley says it offers the view that, “globalization and open borders
create vulnerabilities to viruses and other threats.” Malley endorses the first
narrative because, echoing the Yongding and Gallagher sentiment, he sees that
the best way to move forward is for America and China to cooperate.
What
is not discussed in depth in either article, however, is the way that each nation
perceives the other; a factor which in my view, will play a major role in
determining how the future relationship between the two nations will develop.
To their credit, however, Yongding and Gallagher brought up the subject, but
only briefly, and said nothing as to how it will affect the future relationship
between the two nations.
Here
is what they said in that regard: “Rather than thanking China for its help, the
US has doubled down on disparaging the country. As Malaysian economist Andrew
Sheng has observed, 'Anything that China does that is supposed to be good will
be treated as a conspiracy for China to grab power. China in the eyes of the
West cannot do anything right.'” But having mentioned something about the
“West's” view of China, Yongding and Gallagher said not a word about China's
view of the West––read America.
Still,
whereas Sheng's observation is correct, it only reflects the symptom of what is
going on in America with regard to the disparagement of China. This said, we
must stress that what goes on in America does not necessarily reflect what goes
on in the entire “West.” In fact, what's happening in America is that the old
coalition of neocons, Taiwan lobbyists and agents of the military-industrial
complex, has gotten together, and working on painting China into the image of
the hated bogeyman for the new Cold War that the little devils are in the
process of patching together.
As
to China's perception of America, it is not much different from the view that
the former colonies have of the old colonial powers. The Americans may think of
their country as one that did not colonize other nations, but to the Chinese
who fought bitter wars against America in Korea and Vietnam, that argument
sounds like propaganda designed to con the Chinese into dropping their guard.
And
so, what I see developing in the future, is that, guided by the perception each
country has of the other, the level of cooperation and business dealings
between them, will continue out of necessity.
Yes,
that level will ebb and flow in response to the business cycle, but also in
response to the machinations of the neocons, the Taiwan lobbyists and the
agents of the American military-industrial complex who will continually play on
the fears of the politicians in Washington to continually stir the pot.