Monday, July 29, 2019

Endless Haggling and no Hint of a Solution

The foreign policy think-tanks that wish to project the image of thinking, seem to always find the characters who will whip up articles that float like a silvery blimp capable of reflecting light but not producing it. The tanks then proceed to publish the articles under their own name, not realizing that they are nothing more than shallow haggling loads of rant carrying no useful message.

An example of this asinine reality is the Council on Foreign Relations whose record in the area of shedding light on matters of importance, looks like the notes of a witch doctor who took pain to describe the brain operations he performed “successfully” on hundreds of patients even if all those he treated died before he was done with the song and dance ritual that's performed at the start of each ceremony.

Whether they are retained by the Council on Foreign Relations or by any other so-called think-tank, the characters that consider themselves experts in the fields they choose to pontificate, repeat the old mistakes over and over. It is that they refuse to let go of the many false assumptions they grew up with. Instead, they build on them, thus construct monstrosities that bear no resemblance to anything you'll find in real life.

A case in point is the article that came under the title: “Hormuz and Oil: The Global Problem of a Global Market.” It was written by Amy M. Jaffe and published on July 24, 2019 on the website to the Council on Foreign Relations.

Jaffe starts with a preamble which reminds the readers of the known fact that oil is a commodity which behaves like any other commodity that happens to be in demand worldwide. In fact, in the same way that the price of gold or wheat or copper or cotton, fluctuates the same way everywhere in the world when influenced by events in one place –– so does the price of oil, says Jaffe.

But having brought attention to this bit of truism, the writer left the real world behind to enter the fantasy world of tailor-made false assumptions, stereotypes and preconceived characterizations. She unavoidably reached the same old conclusions and repeated the same old empty recommendations; those that were proven to have been dismal failures time after time.

All of this boils down to the reality that unless and until the self-nominated experts begin their thinking process with the acceptance that nations take defensive measures only because they are threatened –– the so-called experts will not leave the table around which they all sit and drink from the same delusional brew. And so, they'll keep producing the same old witches brew and inflict its aftermath on the public.

But if these people wish to become more useful, they should be told they can serve their readers better by first admitting to themselves that the Soviet Union, China and North Korea would not have developed nuclear weapons, were they not provoked by the reckless policies of the United States. Likewise, Iran's behavior today would not be what it is, were it not for the American provocations that cause its leaders to take what they see as appropriate measures to protect the nation and its people. This is their duty after all.

On her part, had Amy Jaffe started her thinking with those notions, she would have written a different article. For example, the preamble to her argument might have sounded like this: “To avoid a conflict whose expanse we cannot fathom at this time, it behooves us to find out what America is doing that's unsettling the Iranians, forcing them to behave the way they do.” And Jaffe would have gone on to discuss one or more possible solutions that would have satisfied all the parties affected by the same issues. Instead of doing that, however, here is the mindless speculation with which the author started her argument:

“The problem is Tehran is showing the world what a problem it could become if it had nuclear weapons. A future nuclear-armed Iranian declaration that only the oil Tehran dictates will be allowed to transit the Strait of Hormuz would present a more complex situation than today's challenge of sanctions and shipping. The military problem of protecting shipping would become more dangerous, requiring a military campaign to destroy active warheads before engaging the conventional forces blocking free transit of the Strait”.

That’s why Amy Jaffe did not write a better ending for her article than what follows:

“All this means that now is a good time to study up on years of US military gaming exercises regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The US military has years of study and knowledge to fashion and lead an effective coalition for diplomacy and deterrence in the Strait of Hormuz. It should use it”.

And it should be clear to you by now, my friend, that this is how and why America's foreign policy was pushed into a Jewish sewer so deep, Washington is unable to pull the country out of it.

In fact, Washington cannot even get its own head above it, if only to look around and see if other options are available.