To have a Cold War, you must have at least one party willing and able to sustain it for a long enough period of time to make the rest of the world feel its impact.
The
only country that fits this description at this time, is the United States of
America. But we must ask whether or not America will have the ability to
sustain a Cold War against China –– let alone a China-Russia alliance –– for a
sustained period of time.
When
it comes to harboring the desire to poke other nations in the rib for a good
reason, the wrong reason or no reason at all, America has armies of advocates
who continually produce arguments by the tons to justify taking such useless
actions. But when it comes to having the means to sustain such actions for a
period of time as it did in the past … well then, that’s another story
altogether.
I’ll
discuss in a minute or so why I believe America will no longer be in a position
to sustain a Cold War for an extended period of time. But before we get to
this, we should take a look at what Joschka Fischer says about the same
subject. He wrote an article under the title: “The Last Thing This Century
Needs,” and had it published on June 21, 2021 in Project Syndicate.
“The
West views China as a civilizational alternative. A military confrontation
seems to have become a possibility. But on closer examination, the Cold War
comparison is misleading. The rivalry between the US and the Soviet Union was
preceded by a catastrophic hot war. As soon as the war was over, the faceoff
between Soviet communism and Western democratic capitalism resumed. The nuclear
age made war for global hegemony impossible. The situation between the West and
China today is totally different. China does not define its difference from the
West according to its position on private property. It simply does and says
whatever is necessary to maintain one-party rule. The Chinese system’s hybrid
character is what accounts for its success. What should a Cold War II be about?
Perhaps the issue is more about power than economics. But I will venture a
prediction that the experience of the pandemic forces us to take a long and
wide view. The looming climate crisis will force the great powers to embrace
cooperation for the sake of humankind, regardless of who is Number One. The
question of who is on top will be decided by which powers step up to provide
the leadership and competence that the situation demands”.
There
is no doubt that all the factors mentioned by Joschka Fisher in his article,
will play a role in determining the relationships that will be forged as the
twenty first century rolls on. But I see two other major factors which are so
obvious, everyone must be seeing them, but for some unexplained reason, no one
seems willing to talk about them in the open.
One
factor is that, for political and cultural reasons, America’s friends and/or allies
in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, will put some distance between themselves
and America as they began to do already. The other factor is that the financial
clout that’s currently in America’s hand, will gradually diminish in concert with
the relative shrinkage of its economy, and the reduction of the dominance it
has over the world’s financial institutions.
The
current situation is such that foreign analysts around the world have
determined, America is no longer governed by rational people who wrestle with
the issues alone or collectively before taking a decision. These foreigners
watch and read the American media where they pick out the loudest voice that’s rising
from among the mob in the echo chamber of the day. They guess what will impress
the American politicians who are too busy raising funds to get serious about
what they were elected to do. And the foreigners wait with trepidation to see
what America’s politicians will end up doing that will surprise and shock the
world.
Time
after time, foreign leaders have been dismayed by the promiscuous ways that
America has slapped sanctions on nations that do not deserve being sanctioned,
but were because the loud voices of the echo chamber so demanded.
In
turn, the foreign leaders have decided that they cannot trust America reforming
and going back to being a good citizen of the word. In response, the big and
small nations of the world, began the process of constructing new financial
systems that will replace what America has monopolized for too long already,
and has lately been misusing flagrantly.
Parallel
to that, the nations of the world are coming together in ways that oppose the
advice America’s politicians are getting from the echo chamber. The latter are
told to pit nation against nation, and exploit the differences between them. In
fact, America’s State Department has ben geared to do just that over the
decades, and seems incapable of getting rid of the old and destructive habits.
For
example, Saudi Arabia and Iran are talking rapprochement. Egypt, Turkey and
Qatar are becoming friends again. Most of the Arab nations, and many others are
opening embassies in Syria. China and Russia are becoming strategic allies. The
Western Europeans are seeking and doing vigorous business with Russia and Iran.
And the list goes on.
As it happens, each of these moves takes America down a notch because it opposes them instead of joining the new world that’s emerging –– not to seek confrontation –– but to cooperate with the others in the noble quest to advance human Civilization.