In Afghanistan we are seeing a potential modern-day domino scenario that may have a similar ending as the one which played out in Vietnam, or we may see a different ending.
Because
the potential is there that either outcome will have serious consequences, people
of all political persuasions have formed all kinds of opinions as to what might
happen when the Americans will have left Afghanistan entirely after two decades
of occupation and war, and what the consequences might be whichever way the
events develop in that country, and whatever the final outcome will look like.
Essentially,
the envisaged outcomes boil down to the central authority in the capital of
Kabul defeating the Taliban and running a normal government of whatever
persuasion for the foreseeable future. Or the Taliban will overthrow the
government and impose an Islamic kind of rule on the country. In the latter
case, the fear that some people have, is that al-Qaeda will be invited back
into Afghanistan where it will set up training camps from which to launch
attacks such as that of 9/11, on the US and other countries.
But
if we have a replay of the Vietnam scenario, the outcome will be a
reconciliation between the Taliban and the existing central government. Like it
happened in Vietnam, everyone will get so busy contributing to the rebuilding
of the country, no one will have the time to play political games. And we may
see the rise of yet another Asian economic tiger that will be good to its
people, and benefit the surrounding countries who will welcome having another
partner to trade with in their neighborhood. And if we can be optimist, we may
foresee a day when, just like Vietnam, Afghanistan will become friends with
America.
While
these are the possible outcomes that may well materialize, the big powers of
Asia, such as China, India, Iran, Pakistan, Russia and others, have started to
make positive moves for the reconstruction of Afghanistan. They designed
peaceful plans for the country, such as rebuilding the infrastructure that was
bombed by the Americans, and the launching of mining, agricultural and
manufacturing operations as well as all kinds of service industries. The one
endeavor in which those powers will not meddle, is the governance of
Afghanistan. They will leave this work to its people, and will implement an
approach that will blend the work they do with whatever the local politicians
will choose to do for their country.
This
will contrast sharply with what the American government will be nudged to do by
the advisors that the State Department will hire, as well as those who will
offer unsolicited advice on the op-ed pages of the nation’s publications and
the electronic media. When you study the difference in the approaches between
what America will be offering to the people of Afghanistan, and what the Asians
countries will be offering them, you’ll know why the Americans will fail.
The
Asian plans for Afghanistan were discussed above, and we know what they are. We
can also get a hint as to how things will develop in America by reading the
article that came under the title: “Joe Biden’s Afghan Withdrawal Folly,” and
the subtitle: “The president is getting his drawdown, but he may reap the
whirlwind.” It was written by Rich Lowry, and published on July 9, 2021 in
National Review Online. Here, in condensed form, is what Rich Lowry is saying:
“Barely
a day passes without additional news of Taliban gains in Afghanistan. If the
Taliban take Kabul, Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw a residual US force will
look like an unforced error. The Afghan war has stretched on for two decades.
But the cost to the US of sustaining 3,500 troops in the country hasn’t been
high. Biden says not to worry. The US will continue to provide support from a
distance, for the Afghan government. This is a pipe dream, and nothing about
Biden’s drawdown lends credibility to it. The CIA has been struggling to figure
out how to maintain intelligence-gathering in Afghanistan. There will be no
targets to strike if we don’t have the assets on the ground to find them.
Ideally, the US would locate some other base next door to Afghanistan, but
there are no good options in the neighborhood. Conducting operations from the
Persian Gulf eight hours away isn’t a substitute. In congressional testimony,
the head of Central Command said the long-distance missions would be extremely
difficult to do”.
So,
there it is, the first thing that Rich Lowry was eager to mention as he started
writing the article, was the possibility that Kabul may fall to the Taliban and
show Joe Biden, the Democratic President, as having committed an error that’s
making him look bad. Hurray, what a victory for the Republicans!
The
next point that Rich Lowry wanted to make, was that the cost to America in
terms of lives lost was not high in the past and would not have been high if
Biden had decided to remain in Afghanistan. The insinuation here being that
America should have stayed to make sure that Kabul will not fall to the
Taliban. Aware of this concern, Joe Biden reassured those like Rich Lowry that
America will continue to support the central government from afar, an idea that
Rich Lowry has characterized as a pipe dream.
Does this sound like an approach that will make America win the hearts and minds of the Afghani people, or the respect of the surrounding powers, such as China, India, Iran, Pakistan, Russia and others? No, it does not. And this is why America will keep losing both in Afghanistan and on the world stage.