Saturday, March 16, 2013

The Economy And Its Monetary Expression


Under the title: “Senate Democrats Finally Take a Stand” the editors of the New York Times wrote a piece on the 2014 U.S. budget, and published it on March 16, 2013. They say the following in the first paragraph: “...the result … at least makes most of the right choices and is a solid rebuttal to the … House budget.” And they end the piece like this: “The Senate now needs to make a strong defense of the principles it has put on paper.”

The core of the piece consists of contrasting the Senate Democratic budget proposal against the House Republican budget proposal. It is obvious that the editors of the Times favor the Democratic budget because, as they say, it rebuts “the heartless collection of obsolete dogmas that is the House budget.” Fair enough.

But this, in itself, will not be sufficient to sway the independent readers that the choice they made is the right one simply because the opposition is heartless and dogmatic. What the readers want is a more comprehensive explanation as to where the budget fits in the larger context of where the American economy stands today. This is truer than ever before because there is now a great deal of confusion as to what an economy is and how it works.

What confuses people the most when economic matters are discussed is that they fail to make out the difference between the economy and its monetary expression. This is not a confusion that has always existed but one that has evolved with time – becoming more pronounced as the economic interactions among humans became more complex and more abstract.

At the start of human interactions, the neighbors bartered goods. That is, if you had enough of something to satisfy your needs and had a surplus, you could exchange that surplus for something I had that was a surplus to me. For example, if you raised chicken and I grew tomatoes, we could exchange the extra chicken you had for the extra tomatoes I had, and serve both on your dinner table as well as mine.

When life was this simple, we could also compare your wealth against mine. We could do so by stacking the number of chicken you had at the end of the season against the number of tomato baskets I had. For example, if we used to exchange one chicken for one basket of tomatoes, and you counted 10 chickens while I counted 20 baskets, I was considered to be twice as wealthy as you. But if the fortunes reversed the following season and you were left with 15 chickens and I with 5 baskets, you were considered to be 3 times as wealthy as me. The math was no more difficult than life itself.

But then life became more complicated. It started to happen when people employed animals such as horses, donkeys or camels to travel long distances taking with them heavy loads of goods. Because they did not need to barter all their goods against other goods, they developed the more convenient method of exchanging their goods for valuable objects such as pieces of gold or silver, precious stones or colorful seashells, even feathers of rare and exotic birds. These were small items considered to be stores of high value that the bearers could exchange for goods or services anytime later on, anywhere close to home or away from it, with someone they knew or someone they never saw before.

That development was an important transformation in the way that the economy was made to function from that moment on. For one thing, to be considered wealthy, you no longer had to produce chicken or tomatoes or any of the goods that people bought and paid for. And neither did you need to have a skill that would allow you to render a service of any kind in exchange for the goods or the services that you wished to acquire. It is that you now had an alternative to the way you accumulated wealth, thus had the means to buy anything you desired.

What you could do was go to the mountaintop and prospect for gold and silver. You could also go to the beach and gather precious stones and colorful seashells. And you could go hunt for rare and exotic birds plumed with attractive feathers. These were the stores of high value – now called currency or money – you could accumulate thus make yourself as wealthy as you want – in accordance with the effort you put into the endeavor.

Another effect of the transformation was that the economy started to be expressed less by the goods and services that were produced and more by the amount of money that was in circulation. This is how economic aberration was created in the sense that you could now have a small amount of goods and services represented by a large amount of money. Or you could have it the other way around when money became tight at a time when the amount of goods and services increased or remained steady.

This is how and why people started to get confused about what constitutes an economy. It is that they find it difficult to see the difference between the real economy which is represented by the amount of goods and services produced, and the monetary expression of that economy which is represented by the amount of money in circulation. To make matters worse, the aberration became even more acute when another big transformation took place.

This happened when paper money was invented, was made to replace all forms of currency and was used to serve as legal tender. With this, you could be wealthy overnight without having to gather precious metals, colorful stones, or exotic feathers. It became the new reality because you could now counterfeit the money by printing it illegally, or you could get a job in a privileged place where you had the opportunity to beguile the central bank and have it print the money for you legally without it being counterfeit. The place to work and have that privilege is called financial services – a place that has lately acquired a great deal of unwanted notoriety.

To see how this came to be, we need to remember that by the time it was necessary to have a central bank that was in charge of printing the money, have it set the nation's monetary policy and have it regulate the financial services – the way that people did work had changed at least twice. The change came once when the agrarian system gave way to mercantilism, and came again when the system transformed into the industrial economy we see around us today.

The mercantile economy was characterized by the fact that most people were independent craftsmen who earned a living producing goods or services they sold for money or traded for other goods and services.  As to the industrial economy, it is characterized by the large buildings where a number of workers operate fast machines to produce goods in large quantities. This setup has created the need for services that are themselves produced and delivered in large buildings. They are the schools and places of worship, the hotels and restaurants, the hospitals and hospices, and last but not least the financial institutions that dispense the notorious financial services mentioned earlier.

These institutions were invented to function as utilities and conduits that would channel money from the central bank to the productive parts of the economy – the parts that actually made the goods and produced the services that people bought and paid for. It was the function they filled till the day when someone decided they were an integral part of the service industry yet were underrated. Upon this, the financial institutions took on functions that allowed them to change their status from utilities and conduits to full-fledged players at par with the productive parts of the economy.

This gave them the opportunity to increase their control over the money they were supposed to channel somewhere else in the economy. Having the control, they gave themselves functions they were never meant to have, and used them not to add to the nation's production of goods and services but add to their own wealth. They did so by trading not in goods or services but trading in equity and debt instruments. Doing so, and having complete control over the entire operation, they won every bet they made because the clients against whom they played, lost every bet in this zero-sum shell game.

The net result has been that the people who produced the goods and services that made up the real economy ended having just enough money to pay their employees and maintain their enterprises afloat. In the meantime, those who were supposed to channel the money kept enough of it to buy for themselves the means of production that were out there in the economy. It happened because they became the arm that stretched to the spigot of the central bank and turned it wide open. Indeed, free of a set of meaningful regulations, these people repeatedly asked for any amount they dreamed of, got it all each time and kept most of it.

This explains the phenomenon of aberration in the economy, and explains why the rich get richer while the poor get poorer. When the independent minded people understand it, they accept the role that the government plays when trying to level the playing field, even if the exercise begins to look like a redistribution of the wealth.

And if someone still maintains that the rich are envied because they are successful, that someone will end up being laughed out of the room.