Vali R. Nasr wrote an article in which he argues that the
electoral calendar both in the United States
and Iran will determine how
the nuclear talks between Iran
and the P5+1 may progress between now and the November 24 deadline, and what
the likely outcome will be. The article has the title “A Nuclear Deal, Now or
Never,” published on October 22, 2014 in the New York Times.
Of course, the electoral calendar in both countries will be
a factor determining what tactics will be used in the poker game that lay ahead
– but that's only for the near term. As for the long term, the strategy
motivating the two sides remains the more powerful undercurrent that will
continue to guide the talks, even contribute to the choice of tactics that each
side will make. And the fuel powering that strategy for both sides is national
pride, science and the technology of uranium enrichment.
However much hydrocarbon fuel there is on this planet, and
even if we ignore its polluting effect, it is a dwindling commodity that will
someday be completely used up. That day will not be farther into the future
than a century from now. This means that every form of renewable and
non-renewable energy will have to be tapped to keep our civilization going.
Until a major breakthrough can be made and proven to work, nuclear energy shall
remain an energy source we cannot ignore.
The Iranians are well aware of this, and they have the
uranium ore that can make them not only self-sufficient in this field but also
a major exporter of it, much as they are now in the oil and natural gas fields.
And the one thing that every resource rich nation looks forward to achieving is
the addition of value to its resources before exporting them. This is done by
processing those resources as much as possible before export, rather than
maintain the country at the level of being “drawers of water and hewers of
wood” by exporting the resources in the raw state, and re-importing them after
processing abroad.
Now consider these numbers. A country the size of Iran will
eventually need something like a 100 gigawatts of generating capacity to
satisfy its own needs, let alone what it will export. An average nuclear power
plant has the size of 2 gigawatts which is enough to power the needs of 2
million people. And given that it takes decades to build a network of nuclear
plants, Iran
cannot wait to start building those plants. This is regardless of whatever else
it will do in the field of renewable energy.
Now, the rule of thumb is that a city consumes as much
electric energy every 2 weeks as it will take to destroy it were the energy
kept in its raw form. That is, whether you use, coal, oil, gas or uranium, if
you turn that into explosives rather than use it to generate electricity, you
could blow up the city you are servicing once every 2 weeks. Thus, the amount
of uranium that Iran
will have to process to be self-sufficient in this field will be several times
what it is processing now. If it is going to export fuel rods to other countries
rather than sell its uranium in a raw state, the number of centrifuges it needs
will multiply several times over. And it is the number of centrifuges that is
the bone of contention in the negotiations.
To be self-sufficient and to export processed resources –
including uranium – is a matter of national pride for Iran . This is
what comes into play when the long term strategy of these people is considered.
Opposed to this pride, is the national pride of the opponent. But sadly – very,
very sadly – that will not be the national pride of America whose self esteem mirrors
the self-esteem of those dogs who run to a gambling mogul, drop to their knees
and kiss the Jewish ass in return for a donation that amounts to no more than a
fart, a Jewish fart.
The pride that will come into play when confronting Iran will be
that of World Jewry. This is a string of organizations where the operatives
pride themselves on the ability to control others. Their crown achievement has
been the success they never tire displaying to the world – the iron hand with
which they run the zoo of human animals known as the American Congress.