When you begin to read John Bolton's latest article (America needs a Post-ISIS
Strategy, WSJ, June 29, 2917) you
think for a moment that this man must be the most ingenious tactician ever to
grace this planet ... or perhaps the most hopelessly delusional fool you ever
heard of. By the time you're finished reading the article, you find yourself
wondering if “genius” can apply to this guy.
You reckon that Bolton must be aware that in the post-WW II
era, America
did badly following the nominal military victories it scored against small
countries. Examples of the mess it left behind abound – among them the Korean,
Afghan, Iraqi and Libyan wars. You also reckon that Bolton must be aware that America did well after it was defeated in Vietnam , and
after the defeat in the Sinai of Israel, its client. The proof is that America became good friends with Vietnam and with Egypt after their victories. Like
they say, the proof is in the pudding, and the pudding tasted really good for America .
Perhaps this is the logic that prompted John Bolton to
prescribe a method by which America
can set itself to be defeated in the next confrontation with an enemy. It could
be that he is so hungry for America
to do well; he is prepared to sacrifice lives and treasure in a losing war,
thus feel proud again that America
is doing well. Here, in a nutshell, is what he wants to see happen: “The Trump
administration should undertake an 'agonizing reappraisal,' in the style of
John Foster Dulles”.
Do you know what John Foster Dulles did, my friend? He clumsily
turned President Dwight Eisenhower's foreign policy on its head, thus made it
possible for the Soviet Union to get into the Middle East
and secure a foothold in the region. The situation lasted till the defeat of Israel , which
happened to be the instigator behind the ill-fated Dulles move. That was the
move which resulted in the rift between Egypt
and America ,
and started the chain reaction that invited the Soviets to a place they had
never been before.
What brought all this about is that the Israelis thought the
Americans were on their side, thus attacked Egypt but were defeated after a
long war of attrition in the Sinai. After their victory, the Egyptians shook
hands with the Americans and became friends with them. Something similar
happened after America 's
defeated in Vietnam .
Therefore, it must be that John Bolton learned the lesson related to those
events, and wanted to see the same scenario repeated in the Levant .
Ingenious, isn't it? Or is it the height of foolishness?
Here is how Bolton 's logic
unfurls:
“The real issue isn't tactical. It is instead the lack of
American strategic thinking … Extending Baghdad's control into areas retaken
from ISIS cannot be in America 's
interest … Restoring today's governments in Baghdad
and Damascus
would guarantee future conflict. I have suggested creating a new state in
Western Iraq and Eastern Syria . There may be
other solutions, but pining for borders demarcated by Europeans a century ago
is not one of them”.
In other words, John Bolton is suggesting that in the same
way the Europeans demarcated the borders of the Levant to suit their interest –
causing the problems with which we are familiar today – America should repeat the performance, but do so
in a way that serves America 's
interest. This will guarantee anti-American animus in the region, and will
create the kind of conflict that America always loses. John Bolton
must be fantasizing that when this happens, a whole lot of shaking hands will
ensue between America
and its former enemies. Well? What do you say now, my friend? Is the man a
genius or is he a delusional fool?
To find the answer to this nagging question, we probe deeper
into Bolton 's thinking. Doing so, we discover
the following in his article:
“The U.S.
should press Egypt , Jordan and the
Gulf monarchies for more troops and material assistance. Getting fresh
contributions from Arab allies would rebalance the opposition. Securing
increased forces and financial backing from the regional Arab governments is
essential. The Trump administration should recraft the U.S.-led coalition to
ensure that America 's
interests predominate once ISIS is defeated”.