Friday, October 9, 2020

Can an imaginary Iron Curtain be contained?

 At the end of the Second World War, a nation whose time to rise to greatness had come, stood clear-headed among the dizzied and disoriented other combatants. They welcomed clear-headed America giving them direction as it was willing to show them the way to reconstruction and national salvation. America even helped those nations materially so that they can take the first crucial steps in the right direction.

 

But given that by definition, a rising power is a novice power, America itself needed counseling on how to discharge its new responsibilities. Looking for guidance, it turned to Britain, the hegemon it was replacing on the world stage. But that turned out to be the mistake that changed America's procession from the upward direction on which it had been before the war and during it, to a downward direction after the war.

 

The most consequential mistake America made, was to take seriously the British advice, mouthed by the mouthy Winston Churchill, about the Soviet Union being at the same time “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma,” and a well-known evil force that's bent on conquering the world, if left unchecked.

 

Thus, checking the Soviet Union in the sense of containing it, became America's obsession ever since that time. The Soviet Union responded to America's moves by developing the weapons it would need to defend itself, should America decide to attack it with what it had newly acquired. An arms race ensued, and this is how the Cold War raged in earnest. The result has been trillions of dollars wasted on developing ever more lethal weapons, much of which fell into the hands of those who were too happy to use them as best they knew how, thus killed more innocent civilians than soldiers.

 

Now that China has replaced the Soviet Union as America's potential rival, there are people in America who wish to replicate the Cold War. They do not see it as having been instrumental in fostering an arms race that brought the world to the brink of Armageddon on several occasions. On the contrary, they see it as having been instrumental in maintaining a balance of power that kept the peace.

 

This happened, say the lovers of the Cold War, because America responded the right way to the Soviet challenges. That is, in the same way they view America standing against the Soviet Union expanding its Iron Curtain and add more nations to its Warsaw Pact alliance, America had formed its own NATO alliance; one that brought the Warsaw Pact to its knees.

 

In a similar fashion, say the lovers of the Cold War –– including Mike Pompeo, the current Secretary of State, who wishes to see America enter into an alliance with three other nations in the Indo-Pacific region, and form a military quad –– China’s expansionary impulses can be contained.

 

You can see discussion of this possibility in two articles by two writers who do not share the views of Mike Pompeo. One article came under the title: “Quad Group challenges China's bullying of the Indo-Pacific neighbors,” written by Gary Anderson, and published on October 2, 2020 in The Washington Times. The other article came under the title: “An Asian NATO?” written by Jimmy Quinn, and published on October 7, 2020 in National Review Online.

Both writers show reluctance in sharing the view of the Secretary of State because they see that the Asian nations themselves are not sold on the idea. One reason they are not, is that they have issues with each other concerning border disputes and other matters. Another reason is that the Asian nations do not want to antagonize China that is, after all, the big kid on the bloc, and they have to live with him.

 

Thus, instead of a NATO-like alliance, Gary Anderson proposes, “an Indo-China version of the Monroe Doctrine strongly stating that any attempt to resolve a regional issue by force would cause American intervention against the party initiating the conflict”.

 

Of course, China will not be a signatory to that deal. Thus, if one of the signatories is bullied by China, we must recognize the following, says Anderson: “China's bullying of regional actors is as much economic as military, and the United States should be prepared to assist victim nations with economic aid and lucrative bilateral trade agreements”.

 

However, as military exercises will take place and grow in importance anyway, Gary Anderson proposes the following: “The United States can encourage regional partners to standardize ammunition, communications and air/sea defense.” And you can imagine who will benefit the most from selling this ammunition and equipment to the enthusiastic buyers.

 

As to Jimmy Quinn, he offered this opinion: “If the Quad is to be a fixture of the free world's defense against Chinese authoritarianism, it must take the form of network that suits the nature of this contest, not of the last century's Cold War”.

 

The reality is that Mike Pompeo and those in his corner, know China does not want war. Thus, if America does not start one, there will not be a war in the Indo-Pacific region. So then, what's their beef?

 

It is that they fear what they visualize as a virtual Iron Curtain carrying China's economic model, pushing outward to engulf the entire planet by trampling over America's Capitalism––and they don’t like it.

 

Well then, let’s see Mike Pompeo hold back the imaginary Iron Curtain he fears so much.