Saturday, October 10, 2015

A War Historian that's no political Historian

In his article: “Fast-roping toward war in the Middle East,” Ken Allard who is a retired army colonel, demonstrates that he knows a thing or two about the history of war tactics and strategies both during the American Civil War and the more recent Middle Eastern conflagrations. But when it comes to the political history of the Middle East, Allard leaves much to be desired.

His article also comes under the subtitle: “Putin has called Obama's bluff with a broad-shouldered intervention in Syria,” and was published on October 8, 2015 in The Washington Times. The trouble with this piece of work is that it tries to combine sound military analysis with a description of the Middle Eastern political history that is inaccurate. This being the impossible combination that has eroded America's standing in the region and the rest of the world, Ken Allard has done very little to shed light on the subject and alleviate America's quandary.

The problem is that everyone doing this sort of work is subjected to the kind of self-censorship which befits a North Korean style regime, not one that calls itself a democracy or even the most powerful democracy the world has ever known. That would be an America in which hundreds of thousands of people, if not millions of them earn a living by expressing their opinion through the media. And yet, no one from among this multitude of people dares to include in their discussion the glaring truth that Israel and the Jewish pundits of America are hurting the nation's interests in the Middle East and around the world.

True to form, Allard chose to follow the wretched pattern that's adopted by everyone in America with regard to issues relating to the Middle East. It is to dance around the reality that policies for the region are formulated to serve Israel even when the practice hurts America's interests. For this reason, Allard – like all the others – has reached the conclusion that America is losing its aura internationally solely because the Executive branch of government doesn't know what it is doing.

Ken Allard follows that pattern and reaches the wrong conclusion instead of telling the truth about the Jewish undue influence; an approach that could have helped the Executive branch adopt a correct strategy for the Middle East. But this is not what's happening in America these days because the fear is always present that to tell the truth will trigger the predictable Jewish wailing and accusations of antisemitism.

Here is an example that tells a great deal of what's wrong with the Americans: “Egypt had been a key American strategic ally ever since Sadat. But Obama backed Morsi, even after 30 million Egyptians took to the streets to force his overthrow. When Obama cut off military ties with the new Egyptian regime of President Sisi, the Russians swiftly stepped in to reverse a generation of American statecraft. Unlike the amateurs in the West Wing, Russian strategists and diplomats have no difficulty connecting dots.”

What can be said about that passage is that it is loaded with a ton of ironies. The historical truth is that between Sadat and Morsi, there were three decades of a Mubarak regime. The 30 million Egyptians who demanded the overthrow of Morsi were the same 30 million who demanded the overthrow of Mubarak a year earlier. The fact is that it was the people of Egypt and not Sadat, Mubarak, Morsi, Sisi, the Russians or the Americans who shaped Egypt's foreign policy throughout the decades.

To understand what motivates the people of Egypt, you may look at four popular demonstrations that took place in the country during the past five decades. The first came about after the 1967 Israeli blitz on Egypt. President Nasser took responsibility for what happened and resigned. But despite the “defeat,” the people of Egypt took to the streets demanding that he gets back to his post, and resume governing the nation as if nothing had happened. Why is that? Because Nasser was fiercely independent, and would not let anyone interfere in Egyptian affairs. The people loved him for that.

The second demonstration of consequence took place when, during the decade of the Seventies, Sadat took the advice of the IMF and ended the subsidies on bread and other commodities. The people backed by the police – not the military this time – took to the streets and forced Sadat to rescind his decision. Why is that? It wasn't because the price of bread had gone up a little (this happened later, and there was no demonstration) but because Sadat was seen to take orders from the IMF. And the people hated him for that.

The third demonstration took place when the aging Mubarak was thought to be too much in the pocket of the Western powers, especially the Americans who were responsible for his tendency to accommodate the Israelis. He sold to them natural gas at dirt cheap prices at a time when the Jews of America were not letting a day go by without pouring a Niagara of hateful propaganda against Egypt. This was also accompanied by statements out the mouths of the big and the small from among America's ruling class – to the effect that the superpower will arm Israel not only to defend itself but to maintain military superiority over all its neighbors. Why be friendly with someone that puts a gun in the hand of the killer that's after you … and then brags about it?

The fourth demonstration took place when Morsi was seen to forge a cozy relationship with Turkey that wanted to revive the old Ottoman Empire, and with Qatar whose Al Jazeera was as bad as the BBC and the VOA without being as trivial or ridiculously comical as them.

Now, my friend, compare that narrative with the one that was offered by Ken Allard, and you'll see why his contention that “unlike the amateurs in the West Wing, Russian strategists and diplomats have no difficulty connecting dots” is the irony of ironies in his presentation. It is that he is correct about the amateurs in the West Wing, but his description of them applies to him as well. That's because he connected the dots the way that suits him, and not in accordance with reality.

And that deficiency has been the trademark of America's foreign policy ever since the Jews took charge of the White House ... no matter who sat in the Oval Office.