There was a time when MAD was very much in the news but no
more, though the concept is still here and at work. MAD stood for Mutual
Assured Destruction, but in practice meant the establishment of a balance of power
between two antagonists so that neither will be tempted to attack the other.
The principle of MAD worked not only for the two nuclear
powers, the United States
and the Soviet Union, but also for China
and India ,
both of which developed nuclear weapons eventually. And then it happened that Pakistan did likewise, and this helped to create
a semblance of power parity between it and India .
This is how the principle of nuclear deterrence developed on
this planet during the second half of the twentieth century. But was there a
parallel development to deter aggression using conventional weapons? There are
two answers to this question: yes and no. In fact, the history of wars and
skirmishes using such weapons abound.
They happened between China
and India as well as Pakistan and India before the three nations had
become armed with nuclear weapons. Aside from them, wars happened between Iran and Iraq ,
Israel and its neighbors,
and all of America 's
involvements starting with the Korean War, going on to the Vietnam War and to Iraq , as well as America 's participation in the
Falkland War.
When we look closely at the events that unfolded in the
Middle East from 1956 and beyond, we find that all conflicts except one, were
initiated by Israel
when its rulers felt they had the upper hand. The exception was the 1973 attack
in which Egypt and Syria proved they were no longer helpless and
could retaliate if Israel
played the game of hit and run ever again. Thus, the establishment of a rough
(conventional) parity between those jurisdictions secured a reign of peace that
lasted more than forty years already. It was the successful application of the
MAD theory with conventional weapons.
But Israel
had other neighbors that were not as capable as Egypt
or Syria .
The most notable examples being Lebanon
and Palestine , especially the Palestinian
province named Gaza .
Israel
hit the two countries again and again for one reason only: it could do it and
literally get away with murder. However, each time that Israel hit those two neighbors,
they recovered afterward, and managed to develop a way to better defend
themselves, preparing for the next time, which they knew will come. They even
developed a retaliatory force that compelled the Israeli leaders to be less
adventurous.
This situation is repeating itself at this moment. Seeing
that Lebanon might be close to having the deterrence that will keep Israel at
bay for ever, the Israeli leaders instructed their mouthpieces in America to
blow their entrails out of their bellies hollering: bloody murder, the Lebanese
will soon make it impossible for us to hit them at will. Help us, America ! Help
us, United Nations! Help us, Russia !
Help us, anybody!
This is what you'll discover when you read the article that
came under the title: “UN failure is leading to another Lebanon war,”
written by Benny Avni and published on August 29, 2017 in the New York Post.
First, you'll recall that each time Israel hit Lebanon, its leaders, who call
themselves defenders of civilization, promised to clean up Lebanon of what they
termed “terrorists” so as to make the world safe for Americans and for the rest
of humanity.
Compare that with the narrative of what actually happened,
as relayed by Benny Avni himself:
“Netanyahu's message to UN Secretary General: Missile
factories are being built in Lebanon
and Syria .
Unless the UN stops them, Israel will … In Lebanon, Hezbollah has amassed over
100,000 missiles and other arms, ready to hit neighboring Israel … New
factories in Lebanon and Syria would allow Hezbollah to manufacture missiles
there … When Israeli leaders say they won't accept something, they usually mean
it –– the country sets red lines and enforces them … Hezbollah muscled its way
to dominating Lebanon. It now controls all government branches … What all this
means is that Hezbollah is better prepared for the next war … Israel is ready
to act to eliminate them; Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman told UN Secretary
General”.