Aside from adhering to a couple of taboos
that no Jewish pundit can contradict when writing about Israel, Robert Kagan
wrote what amounts to an open letter to whichever group of leaders will win the
upcoming election in Israel ... telling it like it is. He is warning those
leaders, as delicately as he can, not to abandon the appearance of standing in
the camp of liberalism.
The open letter came in the form of an
article written under the title: “Israel and the decline of the liberal order,”
and the subtitle: “The rise of nationalism around the globe may be reflected in
the outcome of Israeli elections on Tuesday.” It was published on September 12,
2019 in The Washington Post.
The pitch that Kagan is making to the
leaders of Israel is that the authoritarian world leaders Netanyahu has been
meeting and taking pictures with, will prove valueless when push comes to shove
as it is bound to happen now that anti-Semitism is rising throughout the world.
Kagan is reminding those leaders that Israel was born in an age of liberalism
and has maintained that posture ever since. The posture harmonized very well
with the American tendency to favor liberal norms thus, it would be foolish for
Israel to change posture.
Robert Kagan also went into great detail,
reminding those leaders that Israel could not have survived the length of time
that it did, were it not for the uninterrupted financial, diplomatic and
military support it has been receiving from America during the decades. He also
cautioned that there was never a compelling reason for America to be this
generous. To emphasize this last point, he reminded the Israelis of how much
American opposition to supporting Israel there was in the past. It is opposition
that might come to life again if Israel were to upset America by choosing a
path that appears incompatible with American interests.
What is missing in the Kagan advice to
Israel's leaders is what concrete steps they must take to guarantee the continued
survival of Israel. He did the right thing warning them of the reality that no
matter what posture they take, the world will never be safe for Israel. He also
did the right thing acknowledging that a rightwing posture will damage Israel's
relation with “liberal” America. But he did not explain why a liberal posture
will guarantee continued American support, given that a new generation of
Jewish Americans is turning its back on Israel, not only because of its posture
but because of the continued occupation of Palestine.
There is no doubt that Israeli leaders of
every stripe are aware of everything that Robert Kagan has included in his open
letter to them and yet, they do not seem eager to change course. So, what could
he have said that would have brought them to change the current condition of
paralysis in which they live, replacing it with one that has the chance of
turning things around? This, would have promised a stable future for Israel's
inhabitants, and satisfaction for Jews around the globe.
Well, it is simple. Since the occupation
of Palestine is the source of Israel's continued anxiety about its own
survival, the occupation must end. This is not happening, however, because the
Jews have many false excuses as to why the occupation must continue. They also
have no incentive or compelling reason to make the end happen. In fact, a good
incentive would have been the certainty that Israel will survive, even exist as
a normal country. Well, the truth is that such offer was made to them in the
initiative of the Arab League that gave them everything they said they wanted
in return for ending the occupation.
It was made more than a decade ago but so
far, the Jews have not accepted the offer because they want the land of
Palestine more than anything else. And this is where Kagan could have made a
difference. He can still explain to the Israelis that they will never get a
greater incentive to end the occupation than what the Arabs have offered. They
will not get it from America, from the world or from anyone else. This done, he
should also explain to them that as a member of the American liberal crowd, he
can report with authority that America is turning its back on Israel because
the liberals and the moderates are losing patience with them.
In addition, because the Israelis do not
care about losing the American public as long as they continue to have the
support of the politicians, Robert Kagan can update them, explaining that they
are losing support even among the politicians who can no longer go against the
wishes of the electorate. He should be telling the leaders of Israel that
sooner or later, the Jewish lobby in America will have been reduced to a dog
that may still bark but will have lost his bite.
When this happens, the opposition to
Israel will grow in America more than they see it operate anywhere else in the
world. And anything can happen after that.