Of all the people who write for National Review Online
(NRO), the one that identifies himself the most with Israel is Daniel Pipes. In fact,
when you read his column, you always get the impression that he wants you to
know he is an Israeli insider – at times even someone who speaks unofficially
for the Israeli nation, if not officially for the Israeli government. Think of
him as being the self-appointed ambassador of Israel
to America
and the world.
The result of this fabrication is that you cannot help but
see the face of Israel – warts and all – every time you read what he writes, be
that about Israel or about someone else. And so, here is his latest creation;
one that came under the title “Cyprus Gas Find Could Rearrange Region” and the
subtitle “The island nation needs U.S. military support in unstable
times.” It was published in NRO on November 29, 2013.
As difficult as it is to meet a Jew who truly understands
economics, it is equally difficult to know of a Jew who would make a serious
false remark about economic matters; it is that these people are prudent in
such situations. But if that observation is to be taken as a rule of thumb, it
has at least one exception: Daniel Pipes who is hopelessly inadequate in
economics, yet shameless enough to have thrown prudence to the wind. There may
be something else but I must caution you that sometimes my memory plays tricks
on me, so take what comes next with a grain of salt. I believe I once heard
Henry Kissinger say he understands little or nothing of economics. If true, at
least he is honest about it – unlike Daniel Pipes.
The Pipes latest foray into the world of illusory economics
has him express views on the underwater discoveries of gas and oil that were
made off the coast of Cyprus .
This is what he writes: “The current estimate of 5 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of
natural gas as well as some oil has a value estimated at $800 billion.” He does
not say how much oil that would be, but we can still do some calculations. If
there is little or no oil, the $800 billion will have to be attributed to
natural gas alone, and the math would indicate that the thousand cubic feet of
Cypriot gas is valued at $160. This is absurd because gas trades in America at less than $4 per thousand cubic feet,
and trades in Europe at around $14 per
thousand cubic feet.
If now, we make that $14 dollars our benchmark, it would
mean that all of the Cypriot natural gas is valued at $70 billion. This leaves
the oil – if there is any – to be valued at $800 billion less $70 billion,
which equal $730 billion. We now assign the round figure of $100 for a barrel
of oil, and find that there should be 7.3 billion barrels of oil in the Cypriot
waters. The question to ask now is this: Why would the discovery of gas be
heralded, and not the discovery of this much oil when it is valued at more than
ten times the natural gas? Obviously, therefore, something here is not kosher.
Perhaps we can find an explanation somewhere else. For that,
we go to another passage in the Pipes article. Here, he begins with the
delusion that the Arab countries of Egypt ,
Gaza , Lebanon ,
and Syria
have not found natural gas. And so, he asserts that should they find it, they
might want to join the modern world and take part in whatever is brewing
between Cyprus and Israel . Sadly
though, he does not specify if it is the natural gas or the company of Cyprus and Israel that will render the
aforementioned countries modern. The world – myself included – is dying to find
out. Nevertheless, he bases this projection on a report that was issued a
number of years ago by the US Geological Survey which said: “the contiguous Nile delta and Levantine basins together contain an
estimated 345 TCF of natural gas and 3.44 billion barrels of oil.”
Because 3.44 is smaller than the 7.3 we calculated earlier,
it means that Cyprus
could not have this much oil. It is more likely that it has only a trace of it,
and that the $800 billion value attributed to its natural gas reserve is
grossly exaggerated. As to the 345 TCF mentioned as being in the Nile Delta and
Levantine basins; that would be mostly in Egyptian waters.
In fact, some of that gas has been discovered and placed in
the “potential” or “inferred” columns for now. It is that the country already
has a proven reserve of 78 TCF. Another 45 TCF were to be added to the “proven”
column but for the fact that the revolution delayed the development of the
wells. Under the policy followed by the Egyptian government, they will remain
in the “potential” column till they are fully developed. With calm returning to
the country, the work is now resuming on those wells, and Egypt will soon
be boasting something like 120 TCF of proven natural gas.
The balance of the 345 TCF of gas is spread to the tune of 5
TCF off the coast of Cyprus ;
to the tune of 4 TCF off Israel ;
to the tune of 2 TCF off Gaza ; and a whopping
100 TCF off the coasts of Lebanon
and Syria .
Now the big question: Does that mean that those Arab countries have actually
joined the modern world but that Daniel Pipes is being his usual master of
ignorance? Who cares, anyway? Perhaps no one does.
What we must notice, however, is that by the time we get to
the end of the Pipes column, we discover that he has been using an economic
argument – which he intertwined with a political argument in the form of an
insult directed at everyone in the region except Cyprus
and Israel
– to ask for something. Guess what that is. Yes, it can only be an American
military intervention. Here it is in his words: “The United States Navy has
been hollowed out in the Mediterranean Sea … This force needs urgently to be
revitalized to support America's Levantine allies as tensions further heighten
in their immediate region.”