Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Not a speeding Car but small Avalanches

Anyone – such as teachers or others – engaged in a profession where disputes arise from time to time, and the teachers are called upon to resolve the conflict between students, will tell you that most disputes start small and, if not resolved, can escalate to become a major incident. But they will also say that not every conflict escalates to become a major incident, even if it is not resolved by a third party.

The above is something we should bear in mind when reading, in the Wall Street Journal, the editorial that came under the title: “The Iraq Diversion,” and the Bret Stephens column that came under the title: “Everything Is Awesome, Mideast Edition,” both published on May 19, 2015 in the Journal. Whereas the editorial came also under the subtitle: “Liberals want to talk about anything but the current world disorder,” the Stephens column came under the subtitle: “It takes a special innocence to imagine that the chaos unfolding in the Middle East can be put right.”

The key to understanding what has shaped the thinking of these people can be found near the end of the Stephens column. It reads as follows: “The Middle East, along with our position in it, is unraveling at an astonishing pace. Reckless drivers often don't see how fast they're going until they're about to crash.” The problem with this analogy, however, is that it does not fully match the reality on the ground.

But if we must stay with it, the thing to do is acknowledge that America – which used to be in the driver's seat in the Middle East under a different administration – bears full responsibility for speeding the car. And now that a new administration has taken charge, the nation of America is being steadily taken out of the car. Still, because this picture is incomplete, a more fitting analogy will have to be invented.

To this end, imagine several groups of skiers working the slopes of the mountain, causing small avalanches that do little harm most of the time and serious harm once in a while. This resembles a world where small conflicts abound, and a big flare-up erupts once in a while. On that mountain, one group of skiers is called Middle East, and it happens to be taking instructions from one named W. America.

After a while, W. America is replaced by O. America who immediately senses that a big avalanche is now gathering, and may have been for a while. He tells his team to get out of there … and do so in and orderly fashion, setting the good example himself. Because the mountain has been disturbed for some time now, the small avalanches continue to happen, but the pace at which they do, begins to diminish. Seeing this, O. tells his people there is hope that the situation will stabilize.

Not so, says Bret Stephens who points to incidents that happened from April 2, 2015 to May 17, 2015 as proof that the situation is dire. Instead of seeing those occurrences as being small avalanches that will die out before causing a major damage – such as, for example, Dresden or the Battle of Britain or Pearl Harbor or Hiroshima – he sees them as being the gathering storm that will culminate in a mushroom cloud ... to borrow a phrase from W's lexicon.

And this brings us to the editorial of the Journal. Unlike the Stephens column which avoided the politics that usually come with the territory, the editors' piece is entirely about politics. More precisely, it is an expression of the ongoing jockeying playing itself out between the two Parties in preparation for the upcoming presidential primaries and subsequent general election.

Being very much a part of that jockeying, the editors do all sorts of fancy trotting (if not horsing around) to say that they were correct in approving the invasion of Iraq in 2003, as were all the Republicans who had the chance to vote on it; even those that missed the chance.

But when it comes to the Democrats, the one that counts the most is the current frontrunner for the Presidency, Hillary Clinton, who voted for the resolution to invade Iraq … and she was wrong, say the editors of the Journal.

They now present their own list showing what they consider to be the hot spots on the Planet. And they advise that “Voters might want to know what the candidates will do about them.” Or maybe not, being tired of this kind of politics.