A mistake that some people make is to look at historical
events that may resemble what is happening now, and believe that history is
about to repeat itself in the exact same manner as before. This may be true in
physics and chemistry where the same conditions always reproduce the same
reactions. It may also be true, to some extent, in the realm of the animals ...
such as the cows that know hay is coming their way when they see and hear
the farmer start the tractor in the morning.
The difference between those instances and what happens in
the realm of humans is that people do not usually respond mechanically or
automatically to stimuli. Except for the habitual copycats who are too lazy to
think up something new or modify something old, people tend to think for
themselves and, more often than not, exploit the current situation by making it
work for the self. They do this, having considered the multitude of factors
that could interfere with the process of implementation, thus avoid the notion
that history is a rehearsal for what will happen next.
Even smart and well educated people such as Victor Davis
Hanson make this sort of mistakes, as can be seen in his latest column; the one
that came under the title: “Why the next President Will Face a Dangerous
Predicament Abroad,” published on May 28, 2015 in National Review Online. You
see in it how he juxtaposes past events with his analysis of what is happening
in the present, to say that history is about to serve as model for what will
happen next.
He begins with what he says is a resemblance between what
Hitler figured out about America ,
Britain and the Soviet Union almost a century ago with what happened
during the Jimmy Carter era decades ago. In both instances, says Victor Hanson,
the fact that the democracies neglected to arm themselves and be ready, has led
the autocrats to do nasty things to the world. In the case of Hitler, he
militarized the Rhineland, annexed Austria ,
and gobbled up Czechoslovakia ,
he says.
As to what happened during the Carter era; it is that the
American President cut the defense budget to make human rights govern his
foreign policy, a move that led to what he calls the implosion of Iran. That
is, the American embassy in Tehran was stormed,
diplomats were taken hostage, and radical Islam spread throughout the Middle East . In addition, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan , and China
went into Vietnam .
All that, says Hanson, because the dictators of the more recent era had figured
what Hitler figured before them, which is that they have the green light to do
as they wish.
To continue with the analogy, our author goes on to say that
Ronald Reagan was elected President, denying Jimmy Carter a second term. It
happened because Reagan promised to restore American power. He delivered on his
promise; a reality that led the world to recognize him as being the statesman
who restored America 's
prestige and brought stability to the world. And this, says Hanson, is what
eventually brought down Soviet imperial Communism.
And like Carter, the current President, Barack Obama, came
into office promising a sharp break from past American foreign policy, says
Hanson. Obama withdrew American troops from Afghanistan , and extended a
friendly hand to the Muslims, claiming that the West owed them a cultural debt
for everything from the Renaissance to the Enlightenment.
Worse, Obama cut the defense budget, says Hanson, and this
is what led to America
becoming an observer of world events rather than a participant. The result has
been that the Islamic State went into Iraq . Syria
and much of North Africa imploded. Iran sent special forces into Iraq , Syria
and Yemen
while pressing on to get the bomb.
As if this were not enough, China
violated the waters and airspace of America 's
allies in the Pacific region while Russia
did the same thing in Eastern and Northern Europe .
Eventually, this state of the world became the new normal, says Hanson, which
is why he foresees that to restore order in the world, the next President of
the United States will have
a hard time convincing the allies that America is committed to their
security. But this must be done, he goes on to say, because the Obama foreign
policy cannot continue without provoking more chaos or a larger war.
Well then, what is wrong with that? What is wrong is that
Hanson is not predicting the future. What he is doing is reflect what has been
the normal American thinking during the current era. Like the habitual copycats
who are too lazy to think up something new or modify something old, those who
infested the American culture made everyone believe they have a blueprint for
the road ahead, one that must be followed to get to the elusive Nirvana that
forever remains beyond the horizon.