Victor Davis Hanson is certain that the world is passing
through a phase which resembles the 1920s, and predicts that the outcome of
what's brewing in the world today will resemble what happened then. He believes
that the “Western democracies” are treading what he calls “a lethal mix,” a
term that is code to mean another calamitous World War is all but inevitable.
On the other hand, Benny Avni fears that because the Turks
are not appeasing the Russians, a war between the two is likely. When this
happens, says Avni, the NATO alliance will most likely not invoke the clause
which says that all the members of the alliance will come to the aid of the one
that's engaged with a foe. The result of this reluctance, says Avni, will bring
about the end of NATO.
Rejecting appeasement when it is imagined to be there, and
fearing it when it is believed to hover overhead – is a typical reaction of
people who believe that the human race can never do anything right. Hanson and
Avni are such people, and they expand on their thoughts. Each wrote an article,
published on the same day February 18, 2016 in a different publication.
Hanson's piece came under the title: “The Return of Appeasement, Collaboration,
and Isolationism,” appearing in National Review Online. Avni's came under the
title: “America's greatest alliance is about to end with a whimper,” appearing
in the New York Post.
Hanson is a historian, and he tackles the matter from the
historical angle, which is not surprising. What is dubious, however, is that he
starts the analysis assuming that the “Western democracies” have a divine right
to be policeman of the world. He sees them as having the duty to make sure
everyone in the world is behaving as they must or be punished. Because this did
not happen in the 1920s, he concludes that the Western democracies were
derelict in the discharge of their duties.
Having made that point, he draws a parallel between the
situation as it exists today and that era. He points to Iran, China, North
Korea and what he calls the radical Islamic terrorist groups, with yesterday's
Nazi Germany and the Axis nations. He goes on to say that now as then, the bad
guys “all have particular contempt for Western democracies.”
But having narrated a past during which time the Nazis (1)
“annexed Austria, dismembered Czechoslovakia and invaded Europe,” (2) “Josef
Stalin attacked the Poles from the east,” and (3) “the two dictatorships
divvied up the country [of Poland],” you wonder if today's display of contempt
by Iran, China and the rest, rises to the level of violence that sparked the
Second World War. So you look closely to see what exactly today's contempt has
entailed, according to Hanson.
You find that he says this: “Various nations or
organizations shoot off intercontinental missiles, board America boats, send
millions of young male into the West, and issue unending threats. China is
creating new artificial islands … Putin cuts deals with Iran, Syria, and most
of the enemies of the West.” Well, if the allies armed themselves and fought
against the Axis in the period that followed the 1920s, is Hanson suggesting
that NATO, which is well armed now, should preemptively attack the foes he is
naming?
As to Benny Avni, he begins by reminding the readers of the
fact that Russia and Turkey had empires, and that they fought each other for
something like four centuries. This said, he asserts that Putin of Russia and
Erdogan of Turkey “dream of returning their countries to glories of empires
past.” Because of this, Avni is certain that “everything” can go wrong in the
current situation.
He goes on to explain that all the players in the Syrian
conflict (Russia, Turkey, the United States, Syria, the Kurds and the Syrian
Kurds) are angry with each other, and exchanging hot words. This is why, says
Avni, “diplomats tell me France and other allies are warning the hot words will
soon turn into a hot war.”
When this happens, says he, no one in NATO will rush to
Turkey's aid because “We don't do wars anymore, remember?” He goes on to explain
that NATO is the weakest link in the Syrian war, which he describes as being a
mini-world war already.
But will Secretary of State, John Kerry be able to arrange a
ceasefire? “No chance. Not as long as America chooses to sit this war out,”
says Benny Avni. The consequence will be the demise of NATO, and the usual
blaming of things that happened, and those that didn't happened on the
peacemaker whom these people love to crucify: “The alliance may end with a
whimper. When it does, Obama can add NATO's demise to his foreign policy
legacy.”