Saturday, March 8, 2014

Ingrained bad Habits spoiling good Intentions

Here is the title of an article that sets the readers on the wrong track before they even get to read the article: “Entrepreneurship Grows in Egypt's Flailing Economy.” What’s wrong with this are two things. First, even if some people will interpret the first two words to mean that entrepreneurship has always existed in Egypt, and that it is now growing, most people will think that it was never in Egypt, and it is now beginning to grow. This is false, and what comes later in the article makes the falsehood even worse.

Second, Egypt's economy is not now flailing, and has not been flailing during the three years of the Revolution. If it were, then only a dozen or so economies that register a rate of growth higher than 2.5 percent would be considered healthy. Many will have to be considered flailing, because they only register positive 1 or 2 percent growth like Egypt. And the rest of the world economies will have to be considered worse than flailing because they register negative growth.

However, that is not how the health of an economy is normally defined. Furthermore, the term does not apply to Egypt by any stretch of the imagination because no structural damage was done to the country's economy during the double whammy of a revolution and a European severe slowdown that cut down on the import of goods from Egypt, and the supply to that country with tourists. What really happened, therefore, was that the domestic economy remained intact while the part that dealt with the world was curtailed somewhat.

Thus, while the banking system remained flush with cash in the local currency, and business activity in the country remained as brisk as ever, it was drained of foreign reserves, some of which was smuggled out of the country illegally. This caused worries to develop in some quarters, but nothing of the magnitude seen in the European peripherals which, in some cases, had little cash left in the banking system, and owed more money to foreigners than their GDP was worth.

Those European countries needed bailouts in the true sense of the word because what was done to stabilize them represented a default by another name. The amounts they owed reached the hundreds of billions of dollars whereas Egypt needed no more than a “bridge loan” of less than ten billion dollars to get over the hump. This is what the IMF is there for, but Egypt did not like the conditions that would be attached to taking a loan from that institution. It kept postponing acceptance of the offer, then secured loans from friends. And this, in no way, can be called a bailout. In fact, America borrows as much every few days to plug its fiscal gap and remain “afloat.”

We now get back to the article. It was written by Maggie Hyde of Associated Press and circulated on March 7, 2014. It has little to do with the Egyptian economy per se, which is a good thing because the little that is said is already grossly in error as we shall see in a moment. But the article is about a television show that involves the U.S. Agency for International Development which partially funds an initiative mounted by a Bamyan Media whose aim is to encourage entrepreneurship in countries where some people erroneously believe that the spirit does not exist or is in short supply.

In any case, Bamyan Media makes television shows in Egypt and elsewhere in the world that depict young entrepreneurs who started a project and became successful. The Executive Producer is Anna Elliot, an American who tagged onto a program that is run by Egypt's Social Fund for Development. This program has been around for several years, handing out seed money to youngsters that come up with a good idea for a project. Its managing Director is Ghada Fathi Waly, a distinguished woman who was later appointed to head a government ministry. And it is these two women, Elliot and Waly that Maggie Hyde of Associate Press consulted to write the article, though she interviewed other people as well.

Although Hyde admits that Egypt's economy is now getting back to “levels seen before the 2011 uprising,” she makes the classic mistake of throwing in the air a grave error. She quotes Anna Elliot who does not speak Arabic as saying: “There is not even a word for entrepreneurship in Arabic.” Well, the fact is that the word is a French word because there is not an English equivalent for it, whereas the Arabic language has at least four words to express its meaning.

Brace yourself for a mini lesson in linguistics: “entre” means between in French; “prendre” means to take and “preneur” means the one who takes. Thus, entrepreneur means the one who takes matters in his hands. Now to see what the Arabs have, I must first explain something that is a little more difficult to do. There is a sound in the Arabic alphabet that exists nowhere else as far as I know. It originates deep at the back of the throat and is sometimes represented by the letter “e” in English such as al-Qaeda. The problem is that it does not represent the right sound which also comes at the start of the word “arab” where no “e” is placed at the start. And so, because the sound is represented by a letter of the Arabic alphabet that looks like the Western number 3, it is now customary to use that character when expressing the Arabic word. Thus, you have al-Qa3da and 3arab.

The reason why I went through all that trouble is because there is the Arabic word “3amal” which, depending on its use, can mean “the works” as in business affairs; or can mean “making” as in making things. There is another peculiarity of the Arabic language I am not going to fully explain here; it is that the plural for 3amal is a3mal.

Thus, what you have in Arabic are two terms using that word “a3mal” to mean entrepreneur. They are “mubasher a3mal” which can be translated literally into “messenger of works”; and you have “ra-ed a3mal” which can be translated into leader of works. There are two other words that mean entrepreneur in Arabic. They are muqawel which means contractor, and moltazem which means the one who shoulders obligations. Thus, depending on what kind of entrepreneur you're talking about, you can use one of the first two which are generic, or you can use one of the last two which are specific.

Something that Waly said also needs an explanation. She estimates “that at least two-thirds of the country's economy rides on the informal business.” Well, two-thirds means 67 percent. When you add to this the 40 percent that is said to be controlled by the military, you already reach 107 percent which is absurd. So the question is this: What is going on? Well, when you think of business in Egypt, think of those that pay taxes and those that don't. The big corporations; be they local or foreign pay taxes and constitute perhaps one third of the economy. Another 10 percent may be controlled by the military. The rest do not pay taxes, but some are registered and above ground while the others are not registered, and operate as part of the underground economy. They may each represent 25 to 30 percent of the economy.

Given that the Egyptian economy is said to be worth close to 300 billion dollars based on the businesses that file taxes, it must be understood that the real GDP is probably closer to the 680 billion dollars level. But none of the above came out in the Maggie Hyde article because the bad habits of hanging on to old stereotypes prevented her from writing an article that would have better served her readers. What a shame!