Saturday, March 11, 2017

How and why did they get it so wrong?

Three articles I was able to catch – published during the first week of March 2017 – had at least two things in common between them. First, the writers mentioned Egypt in passing or in depth. Second, the writers admitted they had it all wrong in that the things they expected and predicted turned out differently.

One article came under the title: “Vladimir Putin has a plan to upend the political order of the Middle East,” written by Steven A. Cook and published on March 5, 2017 in Salon Magazine. A second article came under the title: “Egypt's economy shows signs of life” and the subtitle: “The bitter medicine is starting to work,” published on March 9, 2017 in The Economist. A third article came under the title: “The real reason behind thaw in the EU-Egypt tensions,” published on March 10, 2017 in Al-Monitor.

With regard to the Steven Cook article, the concern – as shown by the title – is clearly Vladimir Putin's intentions. But since this is the time when every member of the Jewish mob of pundits is obligated to put-in a plug for the Kurds, Cook began with that theme and quickly dropped the matter. This done, he turned his attention to the Russian push into the Middle East. America performed badly in that region, he says, because of the following:

“While the Americans were focused on promoting democracy, Obama's birth certificate, the Tea Party and the debt ceiling, Russia rethought its doctrine. Putin rebuilt Moscow's prestige by taking advantage of American missteps to offer an alternative. This has provided the Russians an opportunity to build new spheres of influence, helped by the confusion and polarization that Moscow has sowed in the West with cash. So what does this all mean in the Middle East? Russia has reestablished itself as a power in the region”.

That is true, but it's not the whole truth. In fact, Steven Cook could not have known what's missing because he is very much a part of the reason why America's standing in the Middle East sank to such depth. Look what he says: “The Egyptians, who have benefited from copious American economic and military assistance over many years, clearly regard Russia as an alternative to the United States … Egyptians are keen observers of American politics. They began to worry about the dysfunction on Capitol Hill; they reason that these developments may adversely affect their annual $1.3 billion allotment in American military aid.” Cook knows this is pure BS.

To get a sense of how imbecilic that passage is, imagine going to a chic restaurant that's famous for its cream of mushroom soup and its home-made secret-recipe sausage. You order the specialty of the house, and when it comes, you discover that the soup is nothing but a bowl of warm puss; and the sausage is nothing but a used condom stuffed with dog poop. And this, my friend, is what Steven the Cook is feeding his readers. Take it for granted; this cook will never grow-up to be a chef.

As to the article in The Economist, it asserts that only last year, the Egyptian economy looked like it was faltering. Well, it might have looked that way to its writers but not to those of us who called the Egyptian economy resilient, and defined that term. The Economist writers, on their part, did not say what a faltering economy looks like, and they are not saying it now. All they are doing is repeat an observation to the effect that the Central Bank of Egypt postponed introducing the tough measures that were necessary to rectify a twin deficit. What the writers did not do is explain that the deficits were caused by a bottleneck that originated externally to an economy that was otherwise doing very well locally.

But why did the Central Bank wait before taking the measures that it did eventually? The answer to that question comes at the end of the article. It was given by an interviewee who said: “I don't blame the government for taking the hard way, but, at the same time, they should have considered the poor people.” But that's exactly the balancing act that the Central Bank was struggling with. It waited as long as it could, and then acted as decisively as it should.

As to the article in Al-Monitor, the writers begin with this observation: “It seems bizarre that only a year has passed since the European Parliament called for a halt to weapons sales to Egypt … but this year, Cairo hosted Chancellor Angela Merkel who promised half a billion dollars to support Egypt's economic program … Days before, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson announced a $150 million package to support the country … reflecting a change in Europe's position on the Egyptian regime”.

All these pundits will get it right next time, but only if they stop listening to themselves and start listening to the voices of reason trying to tell them something useful.