Sunday, March 29, 2020

Global or no Global? That is the hard Choice

As far as I can tell, globalization began in earnest with the Japanese auto industries in the early years of the 1980s. To understand what happened there, we need, first of all, to highlight the differences between the manufacturing requirements of a new industry, and those of a mature industry.

At the start of the computer industry, all the parts and semi-finished components were made in the United States. They were also assembled into a finished product locally. As the industry began to mature, the assembly was done in countries where labor was cheap. Later, the production and assembly of semi-finished components followed suit. Now, computers and spin-offs are designed and produced in whole or in part in several countries, but the industry is still developing, and cannot be said to have reached full maturity.

The auto industry, on the other hand, has been around for nearly a century and a half, and can be considered a mature industry despite the innovations that were added to it, such as self-parking and self-driving. What makes a car a car is the fact that it is run by the internal combustion technology. The day might come when every car on the planet will run by an electric motor, but the auto industry will still be thought of as a mature industry.

Having recovered from the shock of the 1973 sudden rise in the price of oil, the American auto industry was again in a position to challenge its Japanese counterpart by the early 1980s. It did so by designing and producing smaller and more fuel-efficient cars. To respond to that challenge, the Japanese came up with a slew of innovations, having to do mostly with the process of manufacturing rather than product design.

The first thing that the Japanese did was rely on their dominance of the small car market, to devote their attention to producing high quality cars that left the American novices in this market way behind. What helped the Japanese in this regard was the introduction of the team-work concept, which replaced the drudgery of the assembly-line. Later, the robotic revolution changed all that. But what began the process of globalization in my view, was the failure of the “just-in-time” concept.

To be even more efficient, thus reduce the price of their cars, the Japanese thought of saving money on the storage of the parts they bought from suppliers and kept in warehouses till needed. The auto industries wanted the suppliers to send the parts “just-in-time” so as to be taken directly to the production floor and used right away. Unfortunately for the Japanese, the usual “force majeure” and other delays caused the assembly line to shut down for hours or even days for lack of parts.

Just-in-time being a cure worse that the problem it was trying to alleviate, the Japanese automakers thought up new ideas to reduce the cost of producing cars. One idea was to produce the parts they needed in the countries where labor was cheaper than in Japan. The idea produced good results and was taken up by other companies in Japan and elsewhere. It expanded with the passage of time to the global phenomenon we see today.

And then, the COVID-19 materialized. A whole new debate is just beginning as to what might happen or what should happen to globalization. Two pundits have opposite views in this regard, and each has written an article to expand on those views.

One article came under the title: “COVID-19 pandemic reshapes global societies and economies,” and the subtitle: “The world will not be the same.” It was written by Brahma Chellaney, and published on March 26, 2020 in The Washington Times.

Chellaney puts the blame for the rise of the pandemic squarely on the shoulders of the Chinese leaders. He believes that the world and globalization have changed forever. And he has ideas on how else they should change. He believes that China should be ostracized and made to pay for the damage it has caused the world. He ends his tirade against that country with this advice: “China cannot have its cake and eat it too. It must fundamentally reform”.

As to the other article, it came under the title: “Globalization here to stay, but will need reform,” and the subtitle: “populist forces that see once-in-a-lifetime chance for dramatic turn will find the genie is out of the bottle.” It was written by Henry J. Barkey, and published on March 23, 2020 in The Atlantic.

Here, in condensed form, is how Barkey views the situation:

“There is no doubt that this crisis is taking an enormous toll. Yet, precisely because the shock has been great, when the coronavirus has been defeated the need to restart the global economy will be urgent. No one will want to reinvent the wheel. There will be a natural return to how things were. Companies and institutions will go back to what they know best”.

Time will be the final arbiter on this question. It’s because only time can tell what will happen in the future. But two things are certain at this time. One is that no country is self-sufficient in everything. The other is that the more civilization advances, the larger the variety of products it will need to make, and will make.

This means that the immediate trend is for more jurisdictions around the globe getting the chance to make new products to satisfy more of the world’s markets.

This says that globalization will be with us for a while yet.