Wednesday, May 27, 2020

The Specter of Failure and Promise of Success

Imagine you are appointed Czar in charge of normalizing the affairs of the Middle East. You are told that after studying the situation, you need to issue orders as to what must be done in the short, medium and long terms. So, you look around for material to read and deepen your understanding of the situation in the region.

You find books and articles of all kind, and decide to use a number of them as reference. One of the articles happens to be titled: “America's Opportunity in the Middle East,” and subtitled: “Diplomacy Could Succeed Where Military Force Has failed.” It was written by Daniel Benaim and Jake Sullivan, and was published on May 22, 2020 in Foreign Affairs.

It is an article that was inspired by two other articles according to its authors. One of the other articles was written by Martin Indyk; and one was co-authored by Mara Karlin and Tamara Cofman Wittes. Both articles argue that America has no vital interests in the Middle East, according to Benaim and Sullivan. They recommend that America should lighten its footprint in the region, and not go to war for any reason.

Having said so in the introduction of their article, Benaim and Sullivan went on to explain and expand on their point of view. Being the appointed Czar that's supposed to go through their article among others, and formulate orders that should be executed in the short, medium and long terms, you'll have a hard time finding anything helpful in that article.

This is because the authors wish to see America continue to act like the two things that made its involvement in the Middle East––indeed everywhere in the world––a pathetic failure during the last five decades. They want America to act like the policeman that's dedicated to serve others; at the same time, they want America to remain the self-centered fancier who makes everything about himself. And so, while the two authors seem to claim that they desire improving the lot of the people in the Middle East, Benaim and Sullivan do nothing more than express their number one priority as being the following:

“A better approach requires clarity about US interests and a plan for securing them, changing the United States' role in a regional order it helped create without leaving behind yet more chaos, suffering, and insecurity. Being more ambitious in using US leverage and diplomacy to press for a new modus vivendi among the key regional actors. To be clear, verifiably halting Iran's nuclear progress in the service of a vital US interest”.

That is, they are telling America it failed in the past to reorganize the Middle East in a way that would have served its own interests because it relied too much on military interventions. Because of this, it must now change its approach and rely more on diplomacy to achieve the same old ends of serving its own interests. It is clear that Daniel Benaim and Jake Sullivan fail to see that serving the same old wine in a new bottle is to repeat the same old thing and expect a new outcome. It is simply insane.

As the Czar that's supposed to go through the article and gain insight to formulate orders that can be executed in real life situations, you decide there is not much that's useful in that article. So, you look for something else and find one that came under the title: “The Future of Global Power,” written by Joschka Fisher who was Germany's Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor for 7 years. The article was published on May 25, 2020 in the online publication, Project Syndicate. Here is what it says in brief:

“The Trump administration's effort to repudiate America's global role raises a fundamental question about its approach: what does the US under Trump want? To lead without taking responsibility? That's unlikely to work. While the US remains mired in short-term thinking, China is establishing itself as an alternative source of global leadership and investment, patiently pursuing a long-term strategy to exploit the geopolitical vacuum created by America. The blow to America's international image will be hard to repair. Against the backdrop of the Sino-American confrontation, Europe finds itself caught between two opposing forces and left in the dark about America's true intentions toward China. But China is already too big, too successful and too important to ignore. The facts on the ground call for cooperation”.

What Fischer is saying is that from his observations, he has determined that America is disoriented, and that Europe is confused about what America is trying to accomplish. While this is the reality of the situation at one side of the world, China is acting like surefooted where it sits on the other side of the world. It knows what it wants and has developed a realistic, though long-term plan to achieve it.

He wants Europe to cooperate with China, and where possible cooperate with America as well. He also wishes that America will choose to cooperate with China rather than confront it.

It is this kind of analyses that separate the adults of Europe from the juveniles of America. And it is this kind of analyses that raise the specter of new American failures, while promising future success for Europe.