Friday, July 4, 2014

Agreement that Dogma alone does not work

The difference between science and the humanities is that science is based on mathematical dogmas which are precise and cannot be violated whereas the humanities are not. For this reason the human race has progressed at a relatively rapid pace in the sciences, but seems to have stalled when it comes to the humanities. Why did this happen?

The truth is that science has yielded positive results through the clear vision of equations whereas the humanities got lost looking through a “haze of equations” as Paul Krugman put it. What happened here is that in trying to inject science and mathematics into the humanities, some well meaning academics and researchers created a problem that proved too big for the humanities to handle. And they muddled the project in the process.

But now that America has gone through a prolonged period of near stagnation with minimum growth, the economists who used to pray at the altar of one economic dogma or another are reconsidering their positions. They are beginning to see that each economy is a unique case that must be dealt with uniquely as if it were an individual with needs that cannot be fulfilled by a one-size-fits-all formula.

And in the same way that an individual needs to grow and avoid falling ill, or be cured if he does, growth is the one ingredient that everyone agrees must be generated for the economy to remain healthy. And the belated realization is that growth and the cure – if needed – will happen when the correct combination of procedures is applied to each economy.

In fact, this is what John H. Cochrane writes about in the “Failure of Macroeconomics,” an article that also comes under the title: “When models don't yield the spending policies they want, some Keynesians abandon models – but not the spending.” It was published on July 3, 2014 in the Wall Street Journal.

Aside from the politicking which occupies a good part of the article, Cochrane makes a useful point near the end. Speaking of what is needed to fix what afflicts the American economy at this time, he writes the following: “[It] requires us to fix: our tax code, our cronyist regulatory state, out welter of anticompetitive and anti-innovative protections, education, immigration, social program disincentives, and so on. They require 'structural reform'”. Of course, not everyone will agree this is the proper or even the full prescription, but they will all agree that a unique remedy must be applied to this unique case.

This being the way that Cochrane has articulated his position from the “Right” of the political spectrum; Joseph E. Stiglitz has articulated the position of the “Left” in a different way. Writing: “Inequality Is Not Inevitable,” an article that was published on June 28, 2014 in the New York Times, he basically makes the point that ending inequality will cure the illness now plaguing the American economy.

And to do that, he goes on to say the following: “We need not just a new war on poverty but a war to protect the middle class.” This, in itself, is not a novel idea but it is a comprehensive one. In this sense, it is similar to the kind of remedies which are applied elsewhere in society with great success.

Stiglitz tells in detail how this can be done: “Making markets act like markets would be a good place to start. We must end the rent-seeking society in which the wealthy obtain profits by manipulating the system … The problem of inequality is not so much a matter of technical economics. It is a problem of practical politics. Ensuring that those at the top pay their fair share of taxes – ending the special privileges of the speculators, corporations and the rich – is both pragmatic and fair.” In fact, Joseph Stiglitz says a lot more than that, and reading his entire article would be helpful.

In any case, when considering the two articles, the debate takes on a different flavor from the days when one group held on to the idea that all the problems of the economy can be solved by adhering dogmatically to the theory of Milton Friedman, and the other group held on to the idea that the problems can be solved by adhering to the theory of John Maynard Keynes. Now both sides reject the dogma, and look for practical solutions.

And this development alone is refreshing as much as it is useful.