Tuesday, July 15, 2014

The Strategy Goldberg and Cohorts fail to see

Jeffrey Goldberg is a pundit regarded by some highly placed people in America as being a serious thinker with a knack for the subject of geopolitics … especially when it comes to the affairs of the Middle East. Whatever makes these people think so, they may develop a different view if they read the article he wrote under the title: Is Hamas trying to get Gazans Killed?” It was published on July 11, 2014 in Bloomberg View.

Goldberg quotes the President of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas as asking the Hamas people: What are you trying to achieve by sending rockets?” and Goldberg takes it upon himself to suggest this answer: “Hamas is trying to get Israel to kill as many Palestinians as possible.” And this is the best he could do in the absence of reports relating to the sort of internal dialogue the Palestinians may be having among themselves.

He goes on to write the rest of the article based on that opinion because he sees no other explanation for what is happening in the war that is unfolding at this time between Hamas and Israel. In his words: “Hamas has no other plausible strategic goal here.” And this is what should tell us that Jeffrey Goldberg and others like him are incapable of analyzing a situation, and seeing the long term goal of each player from the moves that they make. Pundits like Goldberg can only scrutinize what the political and/or military leaders say, rehash it and then agree with one side or the other. In other words, the esteem that these people command is highly inflated, and they are not worth their salt.

Look what Goldberg does in the absence of reports concerning the internal debate that the Palestinians may be having. First, he writes this “The men who run Hamas … wish to bring about the annihilation of the Jewish state.” Second, he contrasts that canard with this: “The Israeli military has the operational capability to level the entire Gaza Strip in a day, if it so chooses.” In other words, he is using stale ideals and meaningless stereotypes to build a theory that is so childish, it tells you that listening to this sort of people is what turned America the superpower into America the super-joke.

What is wrong with guys like Goldberg? Well, many of these people are old enough to remember the Cold War, and the strategy that was then used, and came to be called Mutually Assured Destruction or MAD, adopted by America and NATO on one side, and the Soviet Union together with the Warsaw Pact on the other side. It was mad because each side had no alternative but to build their forces up to a level at which they could absorb a first nuclear strike and still be able to retaliate and destroy the other. Call it what you wish but the world has gone through that period without a serious incident, and we're all alive today.

Now think of the hardship that the people of Gaza went through, forcing Ariel Sharon to realize that it was time to cut Israel's losses and withdraw its forces as well as the settlers out of Gaza. And what happened after that? Two major things happened: one political and one military. On the political side, the Israelis and their mouthpieces in America and elsewhere exposed and started debating the Jewish plan to go ahead with the two-state solution based on the idea that Gaza will be the Palestinian state, and that Israel will annex the West Bank, thus realize the greater Israel that Jews have been dreaming about for a century or more.

As to the military side, seeing that Gaza was on the cusp of becoming another Dubai – a feat that would have made the Palestinians in the West Bank revolt and demand freedom – Israel used every fake excuse it could fabricate to do three things: (1) blockade Gaza to prevent it from trading with the rest of the world; (2) bomb its infrastructure to set it back each time that it made progress; (3) assassinate its key people under the pretext that they have bad intentions.

And this is when the military leaders of Hamas gained the upper hand over the political leaders – almost a duplication of what happened in Lebanon where Hezbollah is concerned. They too understood that fighting Israel meant fighting America, something they could not sustain. And they concluded that the only long term strategy for a viable Palestine to come into being was to adopt the MAD strategy of the Cold War. It mean build up their forces in such a way as to make the people of Israel understand that if their military will interfere with their economic plan, they will pay the price. The Israelis got that message loud and clear this time.

This is the deterrence that Hamas brought to the people of Palestine. And this is what Mahmoud Abbas might be convinced he should embrace.